Cryptic that title I guess, but focus shifts for the next couple of months in Europe from the Heineken Cup, with its Quarter Final line up done and dusted, to the RBS 6 Nations, where everything is far from done and dusted.
6 teams, all with a reasonable amount of optimism going into the tournament given either their club sides' form in the various club competitions or the quality of names in their squads, kick off next weekend (February 4th) and do battle over 5 of the next 7 weekends until the 2nd most prestigious trophy in World rugby is handed over to the successful captain.
The flip side of the coin though sees 6 teams who have a lot to prove coming off the back of varying World Cup campaigns, and in 3 of the cases, with new coaches at the helm. Let's have a quick look at the different sides involved.
Italy
New coach Jacques Bruneel takes over a side which will be confident that it can build on the successes of last year. England and Scotland visit Rome this year, and I am sure Italian targets will be at least 1 victory this year to back up the huge step forward made in Nick Mallett's last season, with the home win over France and general improved performances both in the 6 Nations and the World Cup. One concern will be that the squad is ageing once more, and talismanic though he is, Sergio Parisse cannot go on for ever. Bruneel's task is tricky then: continue the progress while bringing in and blooding new talent.
France
A World Cup Final defeat in Marc Lievremont's final game may seem like a solid enough starting platform, but the performances leading up to that Final were anything but convincing. The Tongan defeat and the 2 defeats against the All Blacks mean that they have only won 4 of their last 7 games, and in only one of those four have they played well against a major side (QF vs England). Philippe Saint-Andre knows his stuff though, and France are rightly up there amongst the favourites, with home advantage against England and Ireland a major plus.
Scotland
A first ever failure to reach the World Cup Quarter Finals, where try scoring was a major issue, leaves doubts as to the ability of Andy Robinson's side to break down well-organised defences, and the 6 Nations provides those in abundance. The positives came this autumn with the form of the clubs sides, particularly Edinburgh, who achieved a home Heineken Cup Quarter Final, and a start against a more-than-likely nervous England set-up could give them some impetus to show well. I fear, though, that a defeat could see the wheels fall off and a potential wooden spoon play-off in Rome on the final weekend.
Wales
there seems to be an aura about the Welsh side at the moment. Impenetrable by even the slightest criticism. I, however, am not completely sold on the Welsh yet. Yes, they performed well in adversity in that World Cup semi final. Yes they took a well-deserved win from the Irish in the Quarter Finals. However, they still lost 3 out of 7 in New Zealand and it is that, for me, perceived inability to win the tight games that has me worried a little. They have key men in key positions (Warburton, Priestland, North and Roberts) and I worry that, if a couple of those don't perform, Wales may struggle to be the side that the majority of watchers think they are. I accept that I am in the minority here, and am ready to eat my words if need be, but I believe we will learn a lot about Wales in Dublin on the first weekend.
Ireland
Declan Kidney has gone for experience over youth this year, and has been roundly criticised for doing so in different media. I though think he has made (mostly) the right choices. The World Cup defeat to Wales still rankles, as Ireland had the weapons to win that game, and I think the attitude Ireland will take into the tournament is one of wanting to prove people wrong. I have always been a great believer in a strong spine making a strong side. By spine I mean 2, 8, 9, 10 and 15. In Rory Best, Jamie Heaslip, Conor Murray, Jonathan Sexton and Rob Kearney, Ireland have a spine to compete with the best of them. Best is only bettered in Europe by William Servat and Murray is a much better and more complete player after another autumn of Provincial rugby. Ireland are my outside tip for the title.
England
New coach, all manners of retirements and injuries, off-field shenanigans at all levels. There really is no way a side with all these troubles can win the tournament. It must be said though that England, with the wealth of players at their disposal and the dogged attitude that will be instilled by Stuart Lancaster, can never be completely ruled out. The World Cup failings have been well documented, and using my spine analogy from the previous paragraph, numbers 8, 9 and 10 went missing for large periods in New Zealand, and England limped their way home as a result. 3 wins out of 5 would be a good return this year and may tempt the RFU to continue with Lancaster at the helm. Anything less and he is guaranteed to be back on Saxons duty, anything more and he will still not be guaranteed a longer term contract.
Weekend 1 - Revenge In The Air
The first round of games sees a wonderful mix of games, with a major feeling of revenge tinting all three of them. First up are France and Italy. 2 new coaches and France still smarting from their Roman defeat of 2011. Add to the intrigue the fact that the new Italian coach is French and there is a definite edge to this opener that there wouldn't have been this time last year.
Hot on the heels of this, England walk into the cauldron of a Calcutta Cup game at Murrayfield. Scotland, eliminated from the World Cup by England, will also have revenge on their minds. They will want to hit England early and not let Lancaster's men find their feet and settle into their game plan. If they do, and if they can grind out an early lead, Scotland could well cause an upset of sorts.
Finally, on Sunday, the World Cup Quarter Final is replayed in Dublin. No BOD for Ireland, no Shane Williams for Wales. Wales looking to build on the victory in said Quarter Final, while Ireland will be hoping to continue the momentum developed recently by Leinster, Munster and Ulster in the Heineken Cup.
I'm going for France, England and Ireland in these 3, though I've not decided on margins yet... I will wait to see the line-ups before finally committing.
So if you like your rugby hot with a hint of revenge, then you only have 9 days to wait. There will be a more complete set of predictions here next week, and also have a look out for my preview piece of Ireland's chances which will be appearing on The Rugby Blog www.therugbyblog.co.uk next week. I will be covering Ireland for them throughout the tournament
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