Down To The Wire

 As predicted, this year's Heineken Cup Pools are generally going down to the wire. No prizes for that prediction, given that it happens every year I suppose, but as we enter the final round of matches, there are still 11 teams with a shout at the H Cup Quarter Finals, some of those shouts decent, some requiring nigh-on a miracle.

Let's look back at (another) great weekend and see how each Pool is affected. With a small nod to next week too...

Pool 1
Munster became the first team to qualify, with a 5th consecutive victory in a tricky Pool. Another struggle though, at home against Castres, was ultimately won by their forwards (what's new?) with Paul O'Connell standing out for me. Donnacha Ryan also continue to impress, but they are chugging along in a low gear, and the big question is whether there is more to come or whether they need a major pitstop. Northampton stumbled past Castres to take second place for the moment. They will be regretting 2 things at the moment: the 'Gara drop goal at Thomond Park and the home defeat to the Scarlets that came off the back of it. Had either of those results gone the other way, we would be looking at one of the all-time great Pool games next week with a winner takes all occasion in front of 22,000 people. As it is, Saints only have a potential Challenge semi final to look forward to

Next week sees Castre vs Scarlets and Northampton vs Munster. I see 2 home wins, with Munster picking up one point. The top 2 therefore will be

Munster 21, Northampton 16

Pool 2
Cardiff Blues and Edinburgh both won this weekend, Edinburgh with a last gasp drop goal against one of the big disappointments Racing. Cardiff won a tight one against London Irish, whose inconsistent Heineken campaign matches their inconsistency in the Premiership. Their goal now has to be a Top 6 place and another crack at the Heineken next year. Cardiff and Edinburgh are level on points at the top, but Cardiff meet Racing, while Edinburgh entertain Irish next week. Anyone's guess as to who progresses as group winners, but should both win, both would qualify, though winning the group would be a huge advantage in terms of the draw obviously.

I see both sides winning next week, but don't see Edinburgh bettering Cardiff's points tally, which means a top 2 of

Cardiff 21, Edinburgh 21

Pool 3
Montpellier scraped past Bath for their first Heineken win after 2 draws. Turn those draws into wins, and they would be right in line for a qualification showdown with Leinster next week. However, as it is
they leave the competition with much experience gained, and much credit for giving the tournament a go (I'm thinking of the shoddy effort in the past of Bourgoin-Jaillieu here). Leinster came up against a digged and gutsy Glasgow, for whom Kellock and Gray showed strongly, and were indebted to second half tries from Kearney and Boss to see them to a win. Glasgow have grown this year, and it is a shame that they will lose Gray to Sale come May, but Scotland will be optimistic for the impending visit of England in the 6 Nations. Leinster join Munster in the second round as a result of the win, but like their rivals, they will be far from happy with the way they are playing currently.

I see Leinster winning at home to Montpellier next week while Bath just beat Glasgow at the Rec. So:

Leinster 24, Glasgow 12

Pool 4
Aironi were the ulucky ones in this year's Heineken Cup. 2 former winners and one of the favourites in their Pool, so no surprise to see them bottom. Seeing Leicester unceremoniously dumped by Ulster at Ravenhill for the second time was a surprise though. After a first half which was tough, but nothing insurmountable, Twelvetrees hit the post with a kick he should have made, and Leicester went missing. Big names and big forwards were engulfed by wave after wave of Ulster attack, and a 41-7 drubbing followed. Clermont ran in 12 tries in Italy to set up a decider at Marcel Michelin against Ulster next weekend. Winner goes through, loser, if Ulster, would need bonus point(s) and results to go their way to go through as runners'up.

Leicester reserves will take their frustration out on Aironi next week, while Clermont will have far too much for Ulster at home and will take the win while Ulster don't pick up a bonus point.

Clermont 20, Ulster 19

Pool 5
Ospreys win on Friday night against Treviso kept them in the mix. Treviso's win against Biarritz meant that only one side was likely to qualify from this pool. Saracens hosted Biarritz in Watford rather than the initially proposed Cape Town. Saracens at Vicarage Road is a tough task, and Biarritz having struggled in their domestic championship and without half of their talismanic pair (Yachvili was present but Harinordoquy not) they looked a bit short. Sarries scored through a lovely darting finish by Spencer, but Biarritz fought back well and a Yachvili try gave them hope, only for Saracens to cling to a 4 point lead thanks to Owen Farrell's boot. Strettle showed well for Sarries, while Barritt's performance proved his lack of dimensions, and his limits as a potential England centre

Next week should see a Saracens win in Treviso, and a Biarritz win at home to Ospreys

Saracens 23, Biarritz 17

Pool 6
Toulouse and Harlequins both won their home games to set up a last weekend shoot-out between the two. Quins were dogged against an improved and solid Gloucester, while Toulouse strolled past Connacht with 4 tries to stretch their lead at the top to 2 points. 2 tricky away games next weekend for the hopeful pair, as Harlequins go to Connacht while Toulouse face the shed. Neither home side has anything other than pride to play for, so 2 away wins could be on the cards. Were that to happen, I could see both sides qualifying, but I have a sneaking feeling that Gloucester could upset the Toulouse apple-cart next weekend. Time will tell.

I can see Quins winning in Connacht, though a bonus point may be too much to ask for. Gloucester vs Toulouse depends on Gloucester's frame of mind and selection. If I had to put my house on it though, I'd plump for Toulouse, just.

Toulouse 22, Harlequins 20

So, I have the seedings as (with group points in brackets):

Leinster (24) vs Harlequins (20)

Saracens (23) vs Edinburgh (21)
Toulouse (22) vs Clermont (20)
Munster (21) vs Cardiff (21)

That would also see Northampton, Ulster and Biarritz drop into the Amlin Challenge.

Another incredible weekend of tension, drama and good quality rugby. The Heineken Cup continues to reinforce its position as the best club competition in World rugby. Roll on next Friday