Elementary My Dear Watson

It's that weekend when the 24 teams in the Heineken Cup learn their fate. Well I say 24, but it's actually a lot less as some are already resigned to theirs: non-qualification for the Quarter Finals, not even descending into the Amlin Challenge as recompense for their efforts in the 5 Rounds so far. There are still many permutations though, so before the weekend starts, let's run through them Pool by Pool, team by team, to ensure that you know the score before the games kick-off.

Pool 6
A logical place to start obviously. Actually, these are the Friday night games, so as I've decided to attack this chronologically, that's where we begin. Connacht's debut season has been tough, and they unfortunately are resigned to their fate. 2 losing bonus points is scant reward for their efforts, and their final involvement this year will be to try and put a spanner in the works of Harlequins' well-oiled machine. Gloucester too know their finishing position; a tough pool for the cherry and whites and but for a couple of close defeats, they could well be preparing for a huge game at home to Toulouse. As it is, they are looking to finish on a high while doing their Premiership rivals a favour.

The real interest is in the other two sides. A Toulouse win sees them qualify. A home Quarter FInal will only be lost if Munster, Leinster, Ulster and Saracens all win, or if 3 of the 4 win and Edinburgh win with a bonus point, while Cardiff don't win. Home QFs are difficult to predict really, but if a gun were held to my head, I'd suggest Toulouse will get one.

Harlequins can qualify as Group winners if they win and Toulouse lose, if they win with a bonus point and Toulouse draw, or if they draw with a bonus point and Toulouse don't score any points. Runners-up qualification will be assured with a win and an Ulster loss (without bonus point) or an Ulster win.

Confused yet? Good, it gets better trust me.

Pool 3
Saturday kicks off with a relatively straightforward mathemetical case. Bath and Montpelier are adrift. Leinster have ruled the roost in this Pool, their highlight being a whooping of Bath, and a win would guarantee a Home QF. Glasgow are the current incumbents of second place, and a bonus point win would see them clinging to an Amlin Challenge lifeline which could become reality if 3 of the following 5 things happen (deep breath): Munster beat Northampton, Scarlets and Leicester don't get bonus point wins, Ospreys and Biarritz draw and Harlequins don't score a point and score 4 less tries than Glasgow themselves do.

So it's bye bye Glasgow

Pool 4
Aironi have long since been resigned to their fate. I could unkindly suggest that that has been the case since the balls came out of the bag at the draw, but I won't. Leicester can still qualify for the Amlin with a bonus point win and other results going their way (Harlequins defeat, Clermont defeat, Northamton defeat for example). The real interest though is at Stade Marcel Michelin, where ASM Clermont Auvergne host Ulster. An Ulster win will see them welcome a Quarter Final at Ravenhill. A loss with no bonus point will see them nervously looking at Harlequins, Cardiff and Edinburgh, as wins for all three would see them eliminated and into the Amlin Challenge. Clermont, theoretically, could still qualify with a draw or bonus point defeat, but that is highly unrealistic and defeat at home would probably mean Challenge Quarter Finals for them.

Pool 1
Saturday's final denouement is Pool 1, where Munster are qualified and with a win at Northampton will ensure another home Quarter Final at Thomond Park. Contrary to popular belief, Northampton can still theoretically qualify for the Quarters themselves. A bonus point win, allied to a 0 point defeat for Cardiff or Edinburgh, a 0 point defeat for Clermont, a 4 point win for Ospreys or Biarritz in their head-to head and defeat for Harlequins, and the Saints could even qualify as best runner-up. Odds please Mr Ladbrokes? Scarlets, by beating Castres comfortably and seeing Northampton lose at home to Munster, could also qualify for the Amlin Quarters. Castres are out.

Pool 5
Sunday, Bloody Sunday. Sentiments I am sure most of us feel as the weekend ends, yet this Sunday could be bloody for the Ospreys or Biarritz. Saracens need a mere losing bonus point in Treviso to qualify for the Quarters and dispel the gloom surrounding English rugby. Meanwhile, a bonus point win for either the Welsh or French side could see them qualify, if Clermont, Cardiff or Edinburgh slip up. Treviso will finish bottom, but have had their moments this year against Biarritz home and away, and continue to progress.

Pool 2
Cardiff and Edinburgh both know: win and they qualify. Both are at home against teams with other things on their minds as neither can qualify for even the Amlin Challenge, so really, this should be straightforward, if anything can ever be said to be straightforward in this crazy competition. A draw or losing bonus point could also be enough to qualify, depending on results in Clermont, Biarritz and Treviso.

London Irish and Racing Metro 92 are both left counting the cost of inconsistency and looking to qualify for next year's competition through their League placings.

So there you have it. Clear as mud isn't it. Little by little, as each Pool reaches its conclusion, lines will be drawn through teams' names. 6 live games to behold on the box thanks to Sky, 6 more to be followed in parallel on the faithful iPad thanks to SkyGo. I don't think I've ever watched 12 games of rugby in a single weekend before.

Finally, my predicted QF line-ups as per last weekend's blog:

Leinster (24) vs Harlequins (20)

Saracens (23) vs Edinburgh (21)
Toulouse (22) vs Clermont (20)
Munster (21) vs Cardiff (21)

And for completeness, my Amlin Challenge 8 Quarter FInalists:

Stade Francais, Toulon, Wasps, Perpignan, Sale, Northampton, Ulster, Biarritz

Check back over the weekend to see how I've done.