The World Cup approaches at high speed, and if this were a scrum, I think we would, if following the above scrum instructions, be at the 'touch' stage. All the teams are there, most of the capping ceremonies have taken place, the communities have taken the teams to their heart as 'next favourites' if the All Blacks can't win it. Tomorrow sees us 'pause' before the 'engage' of Friday morning (UK time) when I can already see, hear and feel the first probably bone-crunching impact.
A quick glance at the website of the Rugby World Cup tells us there are 36 hours and 25 minutes remaining till kick off at the time of publishing....
It really is all about numbers at the moment. 20 teams, 600 players, 40 Pool matches, 8 knockout games, 12 stadia, 8 games between Friday morning and Sunday morning this week alone.... A little less than 21 days till I board the flight for LA that will ultimately see me board another flight for Auckland (US and NZ Immigration permitting... no I’m not and never have been a Communist, no I don’t have any apples in any of my luggage or secreted about my person – unless you count the half-digested one I’ve just eaten in the queue).
First selections have been made. There have been some surprises in those selections, some injuries, some extremely powerful looking lineups named. Yes the excitement is building, and I’m just a spectator. What must it be like to be involved in a squad, or even more, named in a starting line-up at the beginning of a potentially glorious journey.
Confidence or Bluff? Weekend 1 Preview
The curves of confidence of my friends who support a variety of different nations have been going up and down like the proverbial fiddlers elbow over the past fortnight and still are. The Welsh (yes I do have Welsh friends, but in my defence I didn’t know they were Welsh till post-friendship – just kidding Welsh people) are riding a wave of confidence after their Cardiff victory over England. The confidence bubble is a notoriously thin one though, and a substantial defeat at the hands of the Springboks in their opener on Sunday will see their hopes plummet. While not the end of the world, a defeat with any margin could see doubts return amidst nightmare images of rampaging Pacific Islanders of tournaments past.
Those Scots who have had little to shout about in recent times, with the possible exception of a Quarter Final 4 years ago, have seen their hopes rise with the 2 recent wins against Ireland and Italy. A gentle start for them against Romania on Saturday should pose no banana skin, and give them a smooth entry into the tournament. Andy Robinson has been clever I believe in not over-playing his, relatively speaking, shallow squad in warm-up matches. 2 games was substantially less than any other Nation, but opening games against Romania and Georgia should see them play themselves into form before the crunch against Argentina and England, when his squad should be relatively fresh. Shrewd guy Mr Robinson....
My Irish friends are putting a brave face on things at the moment. The Golden generation, as they are known in some quarters, are performing like a shower at the moment, but there is an unflinching belief in the ranks of the supporters that this will be the crowning glory of BOD’s career, and that he will take the side to their first ever RWC Semi Final.... at least. Brave posturing, or genuine thoughts? I’m sure it’s a bit of both, but the arrival of a USA side coached by Declan Kidney’s predecessor Eddie O’Sullivan should at least see them get a ‘W’ (that’s for win for the uninitiated) on the board come Sunday.
Ah, les Francais. Les hommes de l’Hexagone demarrent contre les Japonais. La France sous Lievremont n’est jamais a l’abri d’une surprise, mais une defaite contre les Japonais serait plus que ca. Une chose qui est certaine, c’est que les Francais ont, depuis un certain temps, mal demarre les Coupes du Monde, et au rugby et au foot, mais mes amis sont plus que 100% certain qu’on ne devrait pas ajouter le nom du Japon a la liste de Argentine (Rugby 2007) et Senegal (Foot 2002); les deux defaites les plus tristes de l’histoire sportive de la France. Jamais deux sans trois, comme on dit, et pour chaque personne qui voit la France echouer en quart, il y a quelqu’un qui dit que les tricolores sont prets a prendre la revanche des anglais (defaites en demi-finale des deux dernieres editions) et au meme temps terminer la serie de trois victoires contre les All Blacks (demi en 1999 et quart en 2007).
Ah, the French, who start against the Japanese. Under Lievremont, France are never completely protected from a surprise, but a defeat against Japan would be much more than that. One thing is for sure, the French have a recent habit of starting World Cups badly, be they of the rugby or football variety, but my friends are 100% sure that we won’t be adding Japan 2011 to a list of Argentina 2007 and Senegal 2002 (2 of the sorriest defeats in France’s sporting history). As I have said already twice (therefore you should be expecting this) the French say never 2 without the third, and for every person who sees the French losing in the Quarter Final, there is one who sees them gaining revenge over England (for semi final defeats in 03 and 07) and continuing their jinx over the All Blacks (99 semi final and 07 quarter final).
The Tri Nations victory for Australia has done 2 things; firstly it has re-affirmed the thoughts of every Aussie fan that they will win the Tournament and secondly it has led every New Zealand fan to seek solace in the fact that, every year before a World Cup they win the Tri Nations and subsequently blow up during the main event, so losing this may be a blessing in disguise. New Zealand have never had to break sweat in games against Tonga before, and confidence remains high in Graham Henry’s squad (or so we believe, as the old dinosaur has banned his players from communicating via Twitter – how hilarious is his joke that Twitter is the new English fly half? Not at all? Agreed). The Aussies have a slightly tougher opener against the Italians, but that should still result in a comfortable Southern Hemisphere win. I expect both sets of fans to be even more bullish come the end of the weekend.... if that’s possible!
While their Southern hemisphere rivals have genuine optimism as to their chances, the South Africans actually believe they can go on and defend the title too, thus becoming the first team to do so. I would have to say, that I find this optimism misplaced. The players don’t appear to be in form, the coach often leaves me scratching my head at decisions and I just think there are several better groups than the Springboks. Add to that the fact that the statistics don’t back them up..... No side has ever defended the title and no captain has ever been at the helm for 2 titles. It’s a big ask, and given the relatively weak performance in the Tri Nations, surely there is some doubt in the camp and amongst the fans? If that is the case, you wouldn’t really know it. Most fans seem convinced that this is their destiny, and that the Tri Nations is not a good indicator for success moving forward. Time will tell. First up are the Welsh, who will probably come out blazing from the start. A reasonable test first up for the South Africans.
Finally on to England, whose supporters are split as is usually the case. I’m a big believer in the former England football coach Terry Venables’ approach when it comes to the English psyche regarding their sporting sides. “People think we are either the best or the worst side in the World. The truth is we are very rarely either.” England’s fans are split. There are those who believe a Final place is a distinct possibility, given the recent performances and the likelihood that a dominant pack will be crucial in conditions likely to be encountered in New Zealand. There are however still a fair number of doomsayers who decry everything Martin Johnson does, deplore the absence of certain players (and by association the presence of others) and who say that a Quarter Final is the best they can expect. I’m one of the former if I’m being honest, though as said previously, I see England falling at the Semi Final stage.
A tricky opener against the Pumas is not what you would want for an opening game, but England will not underestimate the Argentinians, and despite losing Moody (I repeat my affirmation that he shouldn’t be in New Zealand) and Cueto (a much bigger loss as the most reliable of England’s vaunted back 3 in defence). England fans, believe me, are starting to feel the tension.
ABTE
Confident or not confident, there is one thing that the fans of the Celtic Nations, France and the Southern Hemisphere sides all seem to agree on.... “ANYONE BUT THE ENGLISH!”
“ABTE” is a frequently heard mantra when discussing who you want to win if your side doesn’t. It is something that I have put up with for most of my rugby supporting life. I try to remain dispassionate when there is a game on, but it is beyond me. I cannot help but jump up and down, berate appalling decisions by officials, lambaste opposition players, over-hype England’s chances and a whole host of other things, but come the end of the game, there will always be a handshake with opposition supporters in the vicinity, along with a round of applause for the winning side. It is the rugby ethos, one of the last vestiges of the amateur traditions that formed the basis of the game. Where my gripe is in this ABTE attitude, is in the fact that if you take me out of the context of the game; remove all English identity; replace it with the identity of another Nation and transport me into that game, this attitude is seen as creditable and endearing. Why does this anti-English feeling come in? Where does it come from? It’s a bit of a mystery to me. I guess it’s really a compliment at the end of the day, as there isn’t a Nation that wouldn’t want England’s record in World Cups this century......
And Finally.....
My XV to watch has been a bit of a curse. Ducalcon and Conrad Smith both being overlooked for a starting berth. Oh well, can I help it if Messrs Henry and Lievremont don’t know what they’re on about? (Note: World Cups won: Henry & Lievremont 0 The Egg Chaser 0)
All the sides should now have arrived in New Zealand, with the parsimonious Scots the last to do so.. watching the pennies to the last.... No national stereotypes here though (if you believe that you’ll believe anything)
A quick whizz through the squads shows that there will be an incredible 12 sets of brothers taking part at this World Cup, including 1 set with siblings playing for different Nations (Tuilagi). In addition, had his career not been tragically cut short by injury, Thom Evans would undoubtedly have joined his brother Max to make it 13.
Stories abound about the bizarre things teams take to World Cups. Here are just a few to titillate you: England have apparently shipped their own scrum machine; Japan have an oxygen chamber in their kit; France have 10,000 Euros worth of coffee beans. My English mind boggles... while somewhere a French body gives a Gallic shrug, sips an espresso and shakes a Gitanes from its packet (told you there’d be some stereotyping).
I will be updating the blog over the weekend, with a brief taste of the game that has just taken place. There will be a blog per day basically, but I will add to the existing piece as games go on. I really hope to see you interacting and telling me where I’ve gone wrong. I enjoy the banter and have broad shoulders, so tell me what you think.
Club rugby continues this weekend as well, with games Friday evening, Saturday and Sunday. I think it could be possible, with judicious programme selection, the use of Sky+ (other TV recording devices are available) and a stock of coffee to rival the French squad, you could watch about 24 hours of rugby this weekend... I think i’d better stock up on sleep, Nespresso and the shopping tomorrow – could be a long weekend
Last chance to join me in the Rugby World Cup prediction league I have entered. The site is www.sportguru.co.uk/rwc/pool.asp?p=10011264 and the Pool Code is prosflea. It’s a fun looking game and you’re all welcome to join me there (I’m currently leading the Pool by default as I’m Billy No Mates)
Thanks for reading and can you tell I’m excited?
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