RWC 2011 - Pool A Preview

16 days to go till RWC11 (or #RWC11 if you’re a tweeter). Is it really nearly 4 years since South Africa broke a resurgent England’s resistance at the Stade de France? Is it really approaching 8 since Saint Jonny dropped the goal that won the Northern Hemisphere’s first trophy? Surely it’s not 24 years since this fantastic tournament spluttered into existence and saw David Kirk lift the crown for the host All Blacks.

Well, the answers are Yes, Yes (if you’ll forgive the premature canonisation of Mr Wilkinson) and Yes. I think of these 3, it has to be the last stat that provokes the most unbelievable offshoot statistic: New Zealand’s victory in that first tournament remains their only one, despite them being favourites in every single tournament bar one since.

The perennial underachievers, unsurprisingly, enter this tournament, which they will be hosting alone for the very first time, as massive favourites on the back of 4 years of near constant victories and following another pretty inspirational Tri Nations tournament – note 1 game still to go, but the All Blacks are massive favourites.

They have, if you believe the massed rugby writers, the best forward in the world in captain Richie McCaw, and the best back in the world, in Dan Carter. What could go wrong? What indeed? It is a question I have asked myself in the build-up to every single World Cup since 1987, always with the same answer: “I really can’t see anything beating them this time”. Yet each time, they have failed their rugby-mad Nation, who will not look upon failure anywhere near as sympathetically if it happens on their own doorstep on or before the 25^th September.

They kick off the tournament on 9^th September against the hard-hitting Tongans, who will as ever provide a physical presence to rival the very best, but whose tactical awareness usually leaves a lot to be desired. Indeed, in 3 games against New Zealand, 2 in World Cups, their best performance is a 45-9 defeat in Bristol in 1999, while the other 2 games have seen 102-0 and 91-7 reversals; hardly statistics to provoke any thoughts of an upset. That said, 4 years ago, they hit a jittery England very hard at the Parc des Princes in Paris, but naivety let England off the hook, and indeed resuscitated the England challenge. The All Blacks should be comfortable favourites for this and subsequent games against Canada and Japan.

The only real test of the All Blacks’ Group stage comes against their bête-noir (if I may be so bold as to use the word black in relation to a team other than New Zealand.... – Ref: the ridiculous reaction to England’s new change kit of black) France. France, for whatever reason seem to have the Indian sign over the All Blacks, and their Quarter Final win in Cardiff in 2007 on one of the Northern Hemisphere’s most glorious rugby days of all-time (England had earlier beaten Australia in Marseille) came at a point where most people would have had the engraver starting to work on the ‘N’ of 'New' on the Webb Ellis Cup. 1999 had earlier seen another memorable French triumph at Twickenham (I’ve never written that particular phrase before trust me) in a stunning semi final which thwarted the anticipated Anzac final.

As the French say “Jamais deux sans trois” which paraphrased means Good (or bad) things happen in threes. Can the French upset the applecart again? Who knows, but I would be very surprised, as I really can’t see anyone in the group beating them this time....

France have problems it has to be said; wingers failing drug tests, experienced props (Marconnet and Domingo) being overlooked at the last minute and a coach whose selection technique seems to have had the word bizarre invented for it. Marc Lievremont comes in for much criticism in the Hexagon and is being ridiculed as much as former National football coach Aime Jacquet before he won the World Cup in 1998 (omen?), and how he managed to keep his job after the defeat in Rome against Italy in March is beyond a lot of French rugby supporters. Lievremont looks more and more stressed and downtrodden every time I see him. Indeed, he looks remarkably like a French friend of mine who has accompanied me on several trips across Europe, and who as the day goes on and the Merlot and Guinness go down, takes on a tired look which rivals the stress-worn features of the coach come the end of a losing battle.

They shouldn't have anything to worry about in their games with the three minnows, so it will be a question of whether they give the New Zealand game (24^th Sept in Auckland) their absolute everything or whether they let it go by and save some juice for the Quarter Finals. They are in an advantageous situation as, being in the same pool as the All Blacks, they can’t meet them again before the Final. Given that both halves of the draw would appear as difficult as each other, I’d be tempted to free-wheel a little in that first encounter I think.

The Tongans, Japanese and Canadians will play out an interesting battle for 3^rd place in the group. 12^th, 13^th and 14^th in the IRB’s rankings, they couldn’t be closer, and indeed Japan and Canada played out the only draw of the 2007 World Cup, while Tonga beat Samoa and the USA and came within a score of the Springboks to finish 3^rd in their pool. Much of the interest of the World Cup for me is seeing how these smaller nations progress from tournament to tournament, so this “Tri-Nations” championship within Pool A promises much.

Predicted Pool A Table:
1 New Zealand, 2 France, 3 Tonga, 4 Japan, 5 Canada

Star of the Pool: This should be Dan Carter, though 130kg Tongan prop forward Soane Tonga’uiha will be looking to reinforce a growing reputation after a big season in England’s Premiership with Northampton, and not many will look forward to facing him.

I look forward to reading your comments......

Pool B will follow next, probably at the weekend I would have thought. England start their campaign for a 3^rd consecutive final against Argentina, Scotland, Romania and Georgia.

In the meantime, feel free to follow me on Twitter @markbonsall and to share this blog with anyone you feel may be interested.