This blog, and the linked twitter account @theeggchaser (follow me there too why not?) are creating a little bit of traffic, which is nice to see. I'm looking forward to the World Cup, and taking a sometimes quick look and sometimes more detailed look at the games as they happen. The first three weeks will unfortunately be done from the UK, and after a short break while I travel round the world, the last three weeks or so will see me in New Zealand itself. But enough of that, back to the Preview.
I've only really been scratching the surface of these Pools, as to do them justice would be a full-time job, for which I would have been researching in detail for weeks now, but that luxury isn't mine and all I can do is give you a taste of what I see in each team as we head into the final week before the first game. And with that we head on to Pool D, where the reigning champions, last time's biggest under-achievers, 2 Pacific island Nations and the 2nd best side in Africa lock horns.
Starting with 2007 Quarter Finalists Fiji, who shocked the eventual winners South Africa in 2007, against Namibia, and ending with a revenge match between Fiji and Wales, this promises to be the most interesting pool in many ways, as there is a lot of history involved between some of the sides, and the bigger sides fortunes have fluctuated substantially recently.
So the reigning champions, South Africa, travel to New Zealand hoping to become the first side to retain the title and the first side to win the trophy three times. The best title defence in the history of the tournament is to be runners-up next time around. Australia (1999 winners and 2003 second) and England (2003 winners and 2007 second). Should that series continue, South Africa will be on the second step of the podium come the end of October, but is that a realistic outcome? An experienced side, with an experienced captain in John Smit (if he gets in the team as he is under severe pressure from Bismarck du Plessis). The Springboks had an awful Tri Nations. There is no way of dressing that up any prettier unfortunately. A win at home against a seriously depleted New Zealand B side, and that by a narrow margin, shows serious problems (relatively speaking of course). They have fallen comfortably behind their Southern Hemisphere rivals, and some would argue behind England too in the pecking order. That said, they should have enough to come out on top of the Pool, though a lot of that will depend which Welsh side turns up in Wellington on the 11th September.
Wales are a real enigma. Warren Gatland seemed to have created a squad that could sustain a level through from their Grand Slam in 2008 to this tournament, and be candidates for a semi final spot. Injuries, retirements and a general loss of form though, along with an insistence, from where I don't know, to keep trying Gavin Henson when there are better, younger options, seem to have seriously hit that theory though. Wales beat England in Cardiff, though more through England's insipid attacking play than any particular new found strength on Wales' side. Other than that, a decidedly average 6 Nations, and a lot of gaps up front, the excellent Warburton aside, mean they really can't be expected to go any further than the Quarter Finals. That said, Wales have history of being dumped out at the group stage, and two of their vanquishers are in this group. Do these things come in threes? Will Fiji or Samoa be able to get another one over the dragons? It will be interesting to watch. In 2007, when Fiji played South Africa in the Quarter Final in Marseille, I watched as 1000s of Welsh fans, who had calculated the likely passage of Wales to that Quarter Final, appeared in Fijian garb to support the team who had beaten them. I hope for their sakes, given the distances involved this time, that they haven't all done the same thing..... or that they've packed the skirts just in case.
Fiji. Fiji. Fiji. Say the name and you think of extravagant passing movements, rangy second row forwards goosestepping their way down the wing in Hong Kong on their way to another Sevens title. The entertainers ever since the early days of the World Cup, but more than that. They have the forwards, on their day, to punish a side off their form, like Wales in 2007. Predicting what Fiji will do in this tournament is rather like buying a lottery ticket, if slightly more entertaining. They always seem to be slightly better prepared for World Cups than for the stand alone Test matches, so it's tricky to put a position on them in this pool.
Samoa next. If Fiji are the entertainers, Samoa are their burly bodyguards. For every beautiful Fijian move of recent World Cups, there has been a bone crunching Samoan tackle, usually by Brian Lima. Samoa, back in the days when they were Western Samoa, were the first to destroy the Welsh dream at a World Cup. They have 2 Tuilagis (that's one more than England have - the vagaries of having three brothers playing for 2 different teams is still beyond my intellect) and several other players performing at the top level in Europe. Again, I'm finding it difficult to place them in this pool....
While I deliberate over places 2 to 4, I'll move on to the final team in the Pool, Namibia. Namibia, to put it bluntly, have little chance of doing anything. 4 years ago, they were the whipping boys of a pool involving France, Argentina and Ireland, and I can't see them doing much more this time around. Jacques Burger, the Saracens flanker of the multiple broken noses, is their star name, but he, outstanding though his performances have been for Saracens, will not be able to take his side to anything higher than a 5th place finish - the height of their ambition is possibly a losing bonus point against either Fiji or Samoa, and that is a massive stretch to even give them that.
As I said at the beginning of this blog, this Pool is an intriguing one. So many sides, with so much potential for brilliance yet so much inconsistency. Time to get off the fence though....
Predicted Pool D Standings
1. South Africa 2. Wales 3. Samoa 4. Fiji 5. Namibia
Much thought went into this, and I do think that Wales will, in spite of their obvious weaknesses, have enough to get by both Fiji and Samoa. Samoa will I think be too strong for Fiji, though I look forward to witnessing the contrasting styles. Namibia will finish 5th as I said.
Stars of the Pool
This again is a tricky one. If Wales manage to overcome their jitters and perform in all 4 games, then I expect Sam Warburton, Mike Philipps and Jamie Roberts to be to the fore. Botha and Matfield will obviously front up for the Springboks, and you can never rule out men like Spies and Habana, who can turn a game in the blink of an eye. Alesana Tuilagi, the 111kg Samoan wing, and the Fijians Bai and Tagicakibau will need to have massive games to see the Fijians repeat their last performance in a World Cup.
And Finally....
It has been remiss of me not to mention that the FFR (French Rugby Federation) have strangely announced that Philippe Saint-Andre will be replacing Marc Lievremont as coach after the World Cup. There's nothing quite like good timing, and typically for France, that's nothing like good timing. As usual, the French fingers are hovering over the self-destruct button before the tournament has even started.
What do SImon Shaw and Gordon D'Arcy have in common? 1 forward and 1 back, 1 Englishman and 1 Irishman, 1 is 9 feet 3 tall, the other 4 feet 2. I give in. Well they both got left behind by their teams to fly later due to illness (in the case of Shaw) and a calf strain (in the case of D'Arcy). I'm surprised D'Arcy has been left behind if that is the extent of the problem. I would have thought a plane, with all the enforced rest that is involved, would be as good a place as any to rest an injury. More to this than meets the eye??
The new World Rankings are out. The 20 Teams heading to New Zealand (coincidentally the Top 20 Nations in World Rugby) now know officially what is expected of them according to the IRB's numbers game. 20 coaches immediately said that 'the rankings mean nothing' in a desperate attempt to either downplay expectations or portray themselves as underdogs. The same coaches will no doubt be using the higher rankings of opponents as psychological weapons as the tournament goes on. Ireland's awful August sees them plummet in the rankings to 8th, below Scotland who beat them at Murrayfield earlier in the month. The rankings in full:
1. New Zealand, 2. Australia, 3. South Africa, 4. France, 5. England, 6. Wales, 7. Scotland, 8. Ireland, 9. Argentina, 10. Samoa, 11. Italy, 12. Tonga, 13. Japan, 14. Canada, 15. Fiji, 16. Georgia, 17. Romania, 18. USA, 19. Russia, 20. Namibia
Applying these rankings to the Pools, we would see Quarter Finals of New Zealand vs Scotland, England vs France, Australia vs Wales, South Africa vs Ireland. That, coincidentally, is the same line-up as that produced my by predictions, but Argentina and Samoa in particular will be hoping they can get to the party by shocking Scotland or Wales.
England's Aviva Premiership starts this weekend as I mentioned earlier this week. Saracens defend the title they earned in a hard-fought Twickenham final win over Leicester, and these two will be most people's favourites, though I expect Northampton to be strong when their stars return from the World Cup, and Bath may be a slightly better proposition this time around. The key to this year, more than ever given the World Cup effect, is to qualify for the Play-offs.
More from me in a couple of days time as the build-up to the World Cup continues. I plan reminiscences of my travels during the 2007 World Cup, and I will select a couple of teams in another blog: 1 best team of the previous World Cups based purely on RWC performances, the other will be a team of those I expect to make the biggest impact this time around.
Thanks for reading, remember to vote for who you think will win RWC 2011 and look forward to hearing from you either hear or by Twitter (@theeggchaser)
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