11 and a bit days only now till the 7th edition of the Rugby World Cup kicks off. I hope you're enjoying these Pool previews, which are intended to inform those who maybe know little about the game, and give food for thought to those who know a little more, hopefully all with a little bit of humour thrown in.
So far, I've predicted a New Zealand route march, with the French snapping at their heels in second place in Pool A, and England headed Pool B, with the Scots sneaking by an ageing Argentina to grab a Quarter Final place.
Today I'm looking at Pool C, which while on paper slightly more straightforward, has a couple of interesting battles bubbling under the surface.
The two biggest names in the pool - Australia and Ireland - have had a contrasting month, which may well have seen them both re-assess their targets as we enter the competition. Italy sit as third favourites, while the 2 most populous nations in the tournament, USA and Russia, will be making up the numbers.
Let's look at this Pool in reverse, and start with the team who have never graced this stage before. Russia are a much improved side, and have benefited enormously from the IRB World 7s Series, where they have had some pretty high profile victories. The recent decision to elevate 7s to an Olympic sport will benefit the game in Russia as it will now benefit from financial input of a much higher level from the government, and it will become an integral part of Physical Education programs in Russian schools. All looks good for the future then for Russia, but in terms of 2011, a win against the USA is the best they can expect. Three defeats against the USA since 2004, by ever decreasing margins, show promise and with the USA game being Russia's debut on this stage, maybe they can step up... tough game to call.
The USA seem to have reached a level on the World stage. The big dream of the IRB used to be to get the game growing in the USA (a little like FIFA's dream for our round-balled cousins) to take the Rugby World Cup to the fabled 'next level'. I'm not sure this is either viable or necessary to be honest. The IRB does need some of the second tier Nations to stand up and be counted, like Argentina over the last 12 years, in order for this tournament to not be seen as the sole domain of the Tri/Six Nations mafia. Whether that is the USA, Russia, Canada or a Pacific Islands side is irrelevant as far as I am concerned. The USA, as Russia, have some outstanding athletes who are capable of making an impact with some searing plays as proved by Takudzwa Ngwenya whose Try of the Tournament 4 years ago saw him burn off Bryan Habana no less. They will still be battling for 4th place at best though in Pool C.
"Fratelli d'Italia, I'Italia s'e desta" Sorry, any thoughts of Italian rugby immediately get me singing the marvellous National anthem. Italy have grown steadily over the last 6 or 7 years with a succession of high profile coaches, but just seem to be teetering on the brink of making that next big step. Since entering the 6 Nations, initially as whipping boys, they have now recorded 6 Nations wins against Wales, Scotland and memorably France earlier this year. That win, allied with Ireland's appalling preparations will have seen Nick Mallett's men grow in confidence, and with talismanic Number 8 Sergio Parisse to the fore, you just never know. That said, I see a 2-2 record and 3rd place in the Pool.
As good as Ireland have been in recent years, they have under-performed at World Cups. You could argue that they have been particularly unlucky with the Pools they have drawn (France and Argentina - both semi-finalists) in 2007, Australia and Argentina in 2003 (a tough route through to an eventual QF defeat by France) and a 1999 QF Play-off loss to Argentina, but irrespective of that, they have under-performed when you compare results with Scotland for example.
With a fully-fit squad, and such pre-eminent names as O'Driscoll, O'Connell, O'Brien, O'Callaghan, Wallace and Heaslip having good tournaments, they could well have been up there pushing hard against Australia in the pool or South Africa, probably, in the Quarter Finals. Any hope of such a performance will have dissipated as defeats to Scotland (6-10), France (12-19 and 22-26) and England (9-20) along with injuries to Sean O'Brien and David Wallace, left the preparations in turmoil. A win against Australia now looks unthinkable, and the efforts will be focused on a fully professional performance against Italy (last pool game in Dunedin, 2nd October).
Australia, conversely, have had a good month. Since their victory in the 2001 Tri Nations Trophy victory, the Wallabies had not picked up any silverware of any value. Sure, they had won Bledisloe Cup matches, and Cook Cup matches and one-off matches for pointless ridiculously-named trophies, but no World Cup and no Tri Nations trophy since then, and the feeling to an outsider was that the Australians' traditionally small talent pool (losing a lot of potential stars to the 13 man game) had finally caught up with them. However, 3 wins from 4 in this year's Tri Nations, with the only defeat coming against New Zealand in New Zealand, see them rising to prominence at the right time. A superb set of half backs, with inspiration pace and quick feet (in Cooper's case a quicker set of feet than brain) see Genia and Cooper pulling strings, and Elsom, Pocock and Samo will pressure any side from the back row. Their lack of front row presence and no real centre pairing could well be their downfall ultimately. Top of the Pool with 4 from 4 without a shadow of a doubt for me.
Predicted Pool C Standings
1. Australia 2. Ireland 3. Italy 4. USA 5. Russia
Star of the Pool
Radike Samo - impressed massively in the recent victory against New Zealand and given the opposition in these Pool games, I expect Samo to run through sides almost at will, before being rested after 50 minutes to an hour. Quade Cooper will certainly spark the Australian backs and he will be worth keeping an eye on too. A fit Sean O'Brien will show why he is so highly rated for Ireland, and Sergio Parisse will no doubt lead from the front as always for the Azzurri.
And finally....
Australia and Ireland have history in the World Cup. One of the most thrilling games took place in 1991 when it took an inspired combination between Michael Lynagh and David Campese to break Irish hearts and send Australia on to their first trophy against the English.
Shane Jennings is the Irish beneficiary of David Wallace's injury. The Leinster back row forward, while not in Wallace's league, is a more than reliable replacement.
This weekend sees substantially weakened sides take the field for the start of the English Premier League and the RaboDirect Pro12 League (Wales, Ireland, Scotland and Italy). You can't win a League in the first two months of a season, but you can certainly lose it, and many sides have made interesting recruitment over the summer, with ex and unwanted internationals being hot properties (Stephen Donald the ex-All Black being possibly the highest profile recruitment by Bath).
Quade Cooper is a very lucky boy. How anyone could think his knee to the face of Richie McCaw was not deliberate is beyond me. He should learn from this, but I don't think he will; there's a bit of a wild one in his head, and I think this will cost Australia at some point during the World Cup.
Last week's Predictions were mixed. An England win was bang on the nose, but an All Blacks win with a bonus point was way off the mark. I can't stress how disappointed I was with the All Blacks, particularly around the breakdown and at half back. There are a lot of coaches who will have analysed this performance with smiles on their faces as they start to see cracks in what was previously an impenetrable All Blacks wall. It all bodes well for a cracking tournament
Hope you enjoyed the read. One more preview to come this week, then a couple more articles highlighting the World Cup, before we get going on the 9th September with New Zealand Tonga.
Spread the word about the blog to anyone you feel may be interested. There have been an encouraging number of views so far, and I hope this continues to grow.
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