RWC 2011 - Pool D Preview

15 down and 5 to go; teams that is. 3 Pools previewed and just the reigning Champions' Pool to go. Before I start, take a look to the right of this article and you will see a poll. The 9 Top Nations in World Rugby are listed, you just need to tell me who you think will win, simple as that. Only 18 people have had a go so far, and it would appear the Australians made a major impression with their weekend win. Just one vote for the Springboks which is hardly surprising, or is it? You tell me after you've read my thoughts below.


This blog, and the linked twitter account @theeggchaser (follow me there too why not?) are creating a little bit of traffic, which is nice to see. I'm looking forward to the World Cup, and taking a sometimes quick look and sometimes more detailed look at the games as they happen. The first three weeks will unfortunately be done from the UK, and after a short break while I travel round the world, the last three weeks or so will see me in New Zealand itself. But enough of that, back to the Preview.


I've only really been scratching the surface of these Pools, as to do them justice would be a full-time job, for which I would have been researching in detail for weeks now, but that luxury isn't mine and all I can do is give you a taste of what I see in each team as we head into the final week before the first game. And with that we head on to Pool D, where the reigning champions, last time's biggest under-achievers, 2 Pacific island Nations and the 2nd best side in Africa lock horns.


Starting with 2007 Quarter Finalists Fiji, who shocked the eventual winners South Africa in 2007, against Namibia, and ending with a revenge match between Fiji and Wales, this promises to be the most interesting pool in many ways, as there is a lot of history involved between some of the sides, and the bigger sides fortunes have fluctuated substantially recently.


So the reigning champions, South Africa, travel to New Zealand hoping to become the first side to retain the title and the first side to win the trophy three times. The best title defence in the history of the tournament is to be runners-up next time around. Australia (1999 winners and 2003 second) and England (2003 winners and 2007 second). Should that series continue, South Africa will be on the second step of the podium come the end of October, but is that a realistic outcome? An experienced side, with an experienced captain in John Smit (if he gets in the team as he is under severe pressure from Bismarck du Plessis). The Springboks had an awful Tri Nations. There is no way of dressing that up any prettier unfortunately. A win at home against a seriously depleted New Zealand B side, and that by a narrow margin, shows serious problems (relatively speaking of course). They have fallen comfortably behind their Southern Hemisphere rivals, and some would argue behind England too in the pecking order. That said, they should have enough to come out on top of the Pool, though a lot of that will depend which Welsh side turns up in Wellington on the 11th September.


Wales are a real enigma. Warren Gatland seemed to have created a squad that could sustain a level through from their Grand Slam in 2008 to this tournament, and be candidates for a semi final spot. Injuries, retirements and a general loss of form though, along with an insistence, from where I don't know, to keep trying Gavin Henson when there are better, younger options, seem to have seriously hit that theory though. Wales beat England in Cardiff, though more through England's insipid attacking play than any particular new found strength on Wales' side. Other than that, a decidedly average 6 Nations, and a lot of gaps up front, the excellent Warburton aside, mean they really can't be expected to go any further than the Quarter Finals. That said, Wales have history of being dumped out at the group stage, and two of their vanquishers are in this group. Do these things come in threes? Will Fiji or Samoa be able to get another one over the dragons? It will be interesting to watch. In 2007, when Fiji played South Africa in the Quarter Final in Marseille, I watched as 1000s of Welsh fans, who had calculated the likely passage of Wales to that Quarter Final, appeared in Fijian garb to support the team who had beaten them. I hope for their sakes, given the distances involved this time, that they haven't all done the same thing..... or that they've packed the skirts just in case.


Fiji. Fiji. Fiji. Say the name and you think of extravagant passing movements, rangy second row forwards goosestepping their way down the wing in Hong Kong on their way to another Sevens title. The entertainers ever since the early days of the World Cup, but more than that. They have the forwards, on their day, to punish a side off their form, like Wales in 2007. Predicting what Fiji will do in this tournament is rather like buying a lottery ticket, if slightly more entertaining. They always seem to be slightly better prepared for World Cups than for the stand alone Test matches, so it's tricky to put a position on them in this pool.


Samoa next. If Fiji are the entertainers, Samoa are their burly bodyguards. For every beautiful Fijian move of recent World Cups, there has been a bone crunching Samoan tackle, usually by Brian Lima. Samoa, back in the days when they were Western Samoa, were the first to destroy the Welsh dream at a World Cup. They have 2 Tuilagis (that's one more than England have - the vagaries of having three brothers playing for 2 different teams is still beyond my intellect) and several other players performing at the top level in Europe. Again, I'm finding it difficult to place them in this pool.... 

While I deliberate over places 2 to 4, I'll move on to the final team in the Pool, Namibia. Namibia, to put it bluntly, have little chance of doing anything. 4 years ago, they were the whipping boys of a pool involving France, Argentina and Ireland, and I can't see them doing much more this time around. Jacques Burger, the Saracens flanker of the multiple broken noses, is their star name, but he, outstanding though his performances have been for Saracens, will not be able to take his side to anything higher than a 5th place finish - the height of their ambition is possibly a losing bonus point against either Fiji or Samoa, and that is a massive stretch to even give them that.

As I said at the beginning of this blog, this Pool is an intriguing one. So many sides, with so much potential for brilliance yet so much inconsistency. Time to get off the fence though....

Predicted Pool D Standings

1. South Africa 2. Wales 3. Samoa 4. Fiji 5. Namibia

Much thought went into this, and I do think that Wales will, in spite of their obvious weaknesses, have enough to get by both Fiji and Samoa. Samoa will I think be too strong for Fiji, though I look forward to witnessing the contrasting styles. Namibia will finish 5th as I said.

Stars of the Pool

This again is a tricky one. If Wales manage to overcome their jitters and perform in all 4 games, then I expect Sam Warburton, Mike Philipps and Jamie Roberts to be to the fore. Botha and Matfield will obviously front up for the Springboks, and you can never rule out men like Spies and Habana, who can turn a game in the blink of an eye. Alesana Tuilagi, the 111kg Samoan wing, and the Fijians Bai and Tagicakibau will need to have massive games to see the Fijians repeat their last performance in a World Cup.

And Finally....

It has been remiss of me not to mention that the FFR (French Rugby Federation) have strangely announced that Philippe Saint-Andre will be replacing Marc Lievremont as coach after the World Cup. There's nothing quite like good timing, and typically for France, that's nothing like good timing. As usual, the French fingers are hovering over the self-destruct button before the tournament has even started.

What do SImon Shaw and Gordon D'Arcy have in common? 1 forward and 1 back, 1 Englishman and 1 Irishman, 1 is 9 feet 3 tall, the other 4 feet 2. I give in. Well they both got left behind by their teams to fly later due to illness (in the case of Shaw) and a calf strain (in the case of D'Arcy). I'm surprised D'Arcy has been left behind if that is the extent of the problem. I would have thought a plane, with all the enforced rest that is involved, would be as good a place as any to rest an injury. More to this than meets the eye??

The new World Rankings are out. The 20 Teams heading to New Zealand (coincidentally the Top 20 Nations in World Rugby) now know officially what is expected of them according to the IRB's numbers game. 20 coaches immediately said that 'the rankings mean nothing' in a desperate attempt to either downplay expectations or portray themselves as underdogs. The same coaches will no doubt be using the higher rankings of opponents as psychological weapons as the tournament goes on. Ireland's awful August sees them plummet in the rankings to 8th, below Scotland who beat them at Murrayfield earlier in the month. The rankings in full: 

1. New Zealand, 2. Australia, 3. South Africa, 4. France, 5. England, 6. Wales, 7. Scotland, 8. Ireland, 9. Argentina, 10. Samoa, 11. Italy, 12. Tonga, 13. Japan, 14. Canada, 15. Fiji, 16. Georgia, 17. Romania, 18. USA, 19. Russia, 20. Namibia

Applying these rankings to the Pools, we would see Quarter Finals of New Zealand vs Scotland, England vs France, Australia vs Wales, South Africa vs Ireland. That, coincidentally, is the same line-up as that produced my by predictions, but Argentina and Samoa in particular will be hoping they can get to the party by shocking Scotland or Wales.

England's Aviva Premiership starts this weekend as I mentioned earlier this week. Saracens defend the title they earned in a hard-fought Twickenham final win over Leicester, and these two will be most people's favourites, though I expect Northampton to be strong when their stars return from the World Cup, and Bath may be a slightly better proposition this time around. The key to this year, more than ever given the World Cup effect, is to qualify for the Play-offs. 

More from me in a couple of days time as the build-up to the World Cup continues. I plan reminiscences of my travels during the 2007 World Cup, and I will select a couple of teams in another blog: 1 best team of the previous World Cups based purely on RWC performances, the other will be a team of those I expect to make the biggest impact this time around. 

Thanks for reading, remember to vote for who you think will win RWC 2011 and look forward to hearing from you either hear or by Twitter (@theeggchaser)

RWC 2011 - Pool C Preview

11 and a bit days only now till the 7th edition of the Rugby World Cup kicks off. I hope you're enjoying these Pool previews, which are intended to inform those who maybe know little about the game, and give food for thought to those who know a little more, hopefully all with a little bit of humour thrown in.

So far, I've predicted a New Zealand route march, with the French snapping at their heels in second place in Pool A, and England headed Pool B, with the Scots sneaking by an ageing Argentina to grab a Quarter Final place.

Today I'm looking at Pool C, which while on paper slightly more straightforward, has a couple of interesting battles bubbling under the surface.

The two biggest names in the pool - Australia and Ireland - have had a contrasting month, which may well have seen them both re-assess their targets as we enter the competition. Italy sit as third favourites, while the 2 most populous nations in the tournament, USA and Russia, will be making up the numbers.

Let's look at this Pool in reverse, and start with the team who have never graced this stage before. Russia are a much improved side, and have benefited enormously from the IRB World 7s Series, where they have had some pretty high profile victories. The recent decision to elevate 7s to an Olympic sport will benefit the game in Russia as it will now benefit from financial input of a much higher level from the government, and it will become an integral part of Physical Education programs in Russian schools. All looks good for the future then for Russia, but in terms of 2011, a win against the USA is the best they can expect. Three defeats against the USA since 2004, by ever decreasing margins, show promise and with the USA game being Russia's debut on this stage, maybe they can step up... tough game to call.

The USA seem to have reached a level on the World stage. The big dream of the IRB used to be to get the game growing in the USA (a little like FIFA's dream for our round-balled cousins) to take the Rugby World Cup to the fabled 'next level'. I'm not sure this is either viable or necessary to be honest. The IRB does need some of the second tier Nations to stand up and be counted, like Argentina over the last 12 years, in order for this tournament to not be seen as the sole domain of the Tri/Six Nations mafia. Whether that is the USA, Russia, Canada or a Pacific Islands side is irrelevant as far as I am concerned. The USA, as Russia, have some outstanding athletes who are capable of making an impact with some searing plays as proved by Takudzwa Ngwenya whose Try of the Tournament 4 years ago saw him burn off Bryan Habana no less. They will still be battling for 4th place at best though in Pool C.

"Fratelli d'Italia, I'Italia s'e desta" Sorry, any thoughts of Italian rugby immediately get me singing the marvellous National anthem. Italy have grown steadily over the last 6 or 7 years with a succession of high profile coaches, but just seem to be teetering on the brink of making that next big step. Since entering the 6 Nations, initially as whipping boys, they have now recorded 6 Nations wins against Wales, Scotland and memorably France earlier this year. That win, allied with Ireland's appalling preparations will have seen Nick Mallett's men grow in confidence, and with talismanic Number 8 Sergio Parisse to the fore, you just never know. That said, I see a 2-2 record and 3rd place in the Pool.

As good as Ireland have been in recent years, they have under-performed at World Cups. You could argue that they have been particularly unlucky with the Pools they have drawn (France and Argentina - both semi-finalists) in 2007, Australia and Argentina in 2003 (a tough route through to an eventual QF defeat by France) and a 1999 QF Play-off loss to Argentina, but irrespective of that, they have under-performed when you compare results with Scotland for example.

With a fully-fit squad, and such pre-eminent names as O'Driscoll, O'Connell, O'Brien, O'Callaghan, Wallace and Heaslip having good tournaments, they could well have been up there pushing hard against Australia in the pool or South Africa, probably, in the Quarter Finals. Any hope of such a performance will have dissipated as defeats to Scotland (6-10), France (12-19 and 22-26) and England (9-20) along with injuries to Sean O'Brien and David Wallace, left the preparations in turmoil. A win against Australia now looks unthinkable, and the efforts will be focused on a fully professional performance against Italy (last pool game in Dunedin, 2nd October).

Australia, conversely, have had a good month. Since their victory in the 2001 Tri Nations Trophy victory, the Wallabies had not picked up any silverware of any value. Sure, they had won Bledisloe Cup matches, and Cook Cup matches and one-off matches for pointless ridiculously-named trophies, but no World Cup and no Tri Nations trophy since then, and the feeling to an outsider was that the Australians' traditionally small talent pool (losing a lot of potential stars to the 13 man game) had finally caught up with them. However, 3 wins from 4 in this year's Tri Nations, with the only defeat coming against New Zealand in New Zealand, see them rising to prominence at the right time. A superb set of half backs, with inspiration pace and quick feet (in Cooper's case a quicker set of feet than brain) see Genia and Cooper pulling strings, and Elsom, Pocock and Samo will pressure any side from the back row. Their lack of front row presence and no real centre pairing could well be their downfall ultimately. Top of the Pool with 4 from 4 without a shadow of a doubt for me.

Predicted Pool C Standings


1. Australia 2. Ireland 3. Italy 4. USA 5. Russia

Star of the Pool


Radike Samo - impressed massively in the recent victory against New Zealand and given the opposition in these Pool games, I expect Samo to run through sides almost at will, before being rested after 50 minutes to an hour. Quade Cooper will certainly spark the Australian backs and he will be worth keeping an eye on too. A fit Sean O'Brien will show why he is so highly rated for Ireland, and Sergio Parisse will no doubt lead from the front as always for the Azzurri.

And finally....


Australia and Ireland have history in the World Cup. One of the most thrilling games took place in 1991 when it took an inspired combination between Michael Lynagh and David Campese to break Irish hearts and send Australia on to their first trophy against the English.

Shane Jennings is the Irish beneficiary of David Wallace's injury. The Leinster back row forward, while not in Wallace's league, is a more than reliable replacement.

This weekend sees substantially weakened sides take the field for the start of the English Premier League and the RaboDirect Pro12 League (Wales, Ireland, Scotland and Italy). You can't win a League in the first two months of a season, but you can certainly lose it, and many sides have made interesting recruitment over the summer, with ex and unwanted internationals being hot properties (Stephen Donald the ex-All Black being possibly the highest profile recruitment by Bath).

Quade Cooper is a very lucky boy. How anyone could think his knee to the face of Richie McCaw was not deliberate is beyond me. He should learn from this, but I don't think he will; there's a bit of a wild one in his head, and I think this will cost Australia at some point during the World Cup.

Last week's Predictions were mixed. An England win was bang on the nose, but an All Blacks win with a bonus point was way off the mark. I can't stress how disappointed I was with the All Blacks, particularly around the breakdown and at half back. There are a lot of coaches who will have analysed this performance with smiles on their faces as they start to see cracks in what was previously an impenetrable All Blacks wall. It all bodes well for a cracking tournament

Hope you enjoyed the read. One more preview to come this week, then a couple more articles highlighting the World Cup, before we get going on the 9th September with New Zealand Tonga.

Spread the word about the blog to anyone you feel may be interested. There have been an encouraging number of views so far, and I hope this continues to grow.

England Back On Track As Ireland Continue To Falter

The sun greeted the kick-off at Lansdowne Road (to me, irrespective of sponsorship deals, it will always be Lansdowne Road). Ireland, unconvincing in their warm-up games so far, welcomed England, unconvincing in their warm-up games so far. Injury concerns on both sides of the tape, and Hendrie Fourie went straight into the side having been out of the World Cup 30 earlier in the week. England's Grand Slam dreams had been dashed in this very stadium 5 months previously, when they gave their least convincing performance in some time, but Ireland sensed blood that day and there was something at stake then.

After the Irish version of the Haka, a rendition of the uniting Ireland's call, England started ominously. 2 minutes of possession, Fourie to the fore on three occasions, before a series of big Irish tackles drove them back to such a disorganised extent that Wilkinson tried a drop from near halfway. England were buoyed by this though, and took the lead on 5 minutes, before Ireland had been out of their half. Haskell picked up and hit the blind side from a scrum, quick ball for once allowed England to ship it wide through Wilkinson and Tindall, where Tuilagi exploited the gap with great pace and power to stroll home untouched. Wilkinson added the conversion, and England had a deserved 7-0 lead. 

Ireland seemed to wake up with this though, and twice earned penalties in England's half. The first they tried the corner route, but a bad line-out thwarted this. The second was nearer to the posts, following a late charge on Murphy, and O'Gara slotted this between the sticks to get the Irish on the board at 3-7. No sooner this though, than England's tight 5 put a huge squeeze on in front of the Irish posts, and the Irish had to stand up and concede an easy penalty for the metronomic Wilkinson to stretch the lead to 7 once more.

Ireland continued to push for the try, spurning 2 more kicks at goal and Redden somehow finding Cueto when with a little care, the corner was begging. Cueto's interception was the only way England could have avoided conceding, but Redden really should have done better. On 18 minutes, England were pinged bizarrely by touch judge Poite for a forward pass. Poite is an up and coming official, who referees the scrums as well as anyone, but his vision was somewhat errant on this occasion. Ireland got another penalty under the sticks for a breakdown infringement. Advantage was played before the penalty was given, and the bad news for Ireland was that David Wallace, the influential back row forward, was seemingly severely injured in the advantage play; another victim of a last minute injury?

O'Gara kicked the penalty, and Wilkinson retorted following a high tackle on the Irish 22 to make it 13-6 to the English, who looked far more incisive, probably due to the combination of quicker ball and Tuilagi's presence. Tuilagi was making his presence felt at both ends of the pitch and only a great last-ditch tackle by Murphy prevented a 3rd try in a game and a half in an England shirt. A little bit of chess followed, with the only incident of note being the precautionary removal of Heaslip with a slight injury, before O'Gara slotted a 3rd penalty following another England penalty, after which referee Nigel Owens gave the England captain the traditional warning of 'next cynical one goes for 10 minutes'.

A fired-up Croft and Healy exchanged pleasantries on the floor a couple of minutes before the half-time break. Healy lost a contact lens, England didn't lose Croft. Ireland pushed hard during the last 90 seconds, but solid scrambled defence from the away side saw them take the changing rooms with a 4 point lead. 3 important players, 2 Irishmean (Wallace and Heaslip) and 1 Englishman (Cueto), plus the back-up England flanker Fourie, had limped off during a tough first half in Dublin.

Half time Ireland 9 England 13

One minute into the second half, and Chris Ashton was the man who paid the penalty for England's persistent infringement at the breakdown, as he received a yellow card from Mr Owens before O'Gara hit the post with the subsequent penalty. England's 14 men did what short-handed sides need to do. They kept the ball in hand and shared the workload amongst themselves. Tindall, captain for the day, weighted a kick through perfectly for Delon Armitage who dropped over for England's second try to provoke strains of Swing Low Sweet Chariot... strains which were booed and whistled down by the home fans. Wilkinson had the last word from the touchline to make it 9-20.

The usual raft of second half changes, along with a torrential downpour, made continuity difficult in the second half, and both sides seemed pretty niggly meaning lots of penalties. With the rains come Flood, but not here as Wilkinson remained on the field with Wigglesworth who had a quietly efficient game. As usual in such circumstances, the kicking game comes to the fore, and Sexton, who had replaced O'Gara, and Armitage, both put in a couple of magnificent kicks. Inspirational moments were few and far between in a messy second half though, and with the ball more and more resembling a bar of soap, errors killed most positive intentions. It had become a game for the grafters, and the rise to prominence of O'Connell in green and Tindall in white was evidence of that. 2 of the doughtiest scrappers had big second half impacts. 

As the last ten minutes arrived, and with the conditions not improving, Armitage badly sliced a kick from his own 22 allowing the solid Ireland line-out a good position from which to build an attack. Clean ball came, and Ireland went through the phases, but all was a little slow due to both excellent defence in midfield and the rain, and the attack petered out in an England line-out on the other side of the field. Any semblance of Irish penetration had completely gone now, as they missed D'Arcy and O'Driscoll (who wouldn't) and the game finished in a straightforward England win. A game which clearly lacked the intensity of this morning's battle in Brisbane, but then there was nothing on this one.

Final Score Ireland 9 England 20

Men of the Match - Manu Tuilagi and Mike Tindall. An early try, some destructive tackling, a finely placed kick and the required penetration in midfield. Impossible to split these two, who give England a promising partnership in their problem position at last. They're not Carling and Guscott, they're not O'Driscoll and D'Arcy, but they're a good unit. 

Thoughts

Ireland finish their World Cup warm-up matches with a record of Played 4, Lost 4. Any forward momentum, any optimism, any warm feeling has been completely dispelled by a dreadful August. Admittedly, they missed O'Brien, O'Driscoll, D'Arcy and were further reduced during the game with the loss of Wallace and Heaslip. Their performances have left them thankful that they are in a pool that shouldn't cause too many problems (Australia aside, they should beat Italy, USA and Russia). There is no way though that they can compete with the probable Quarter Final opponents, South Africa. Let's not get ahead of ourselves though here. Declan Kidney is a shrewd coach, and assuming all his big names come through their various trials and tribulations, I'm sure he'll have picked them up by the time they land in New Zealand.

England however will bounce toward the plane after recording their first win in Dublin since they were crowned World Champions in 2003. I was a little nervous going into this game given the result in Cardiff 2 weeks ago, but another solid performance up front, where there are options across the board now for England, allied with improved performances at half back and the emergence of a centre partnership worthy of the name, means Martin Johnson can look forward to his World Cup with a little more confidence than he otherwise would have.

I hope you've enjoyed my take on today's two big Internationals. I will be back with the Pool C and D previews during the week. Keep the comments coming and follow me on twitter for more succinct comment and views.

Aussies Edge All Blacks In Thriller

Australia's home advantage was neutralised by the posturing that is the Haka; yes I know it's tradition and as a spectacle it is truly something, but this has long since passed the stage of being a "laying down of a challenge" and sides use a fair bit of mental energy facing up to it in any way they choose. England's reaction to it during the days of Richard Cockerill remains fresh in the memory, and the different methods of facing up to it in recent times have met with a variety of success. Sebastien Chabal's idea of lining up in red, white and blue tracksuits to leave a visual impact on their opponents seemed to inspire the French in the 2007 Quarter Final though.  

Psychological advantage duly taken, the 99% Blacks, as they really ought to be known given the white collar on their new shirts (isn't it more than a little ironic the fuss that was made about England moving to an All Black away kit at a time when the ALL Blacks moved from a 100% black shirt?), started under severe pressure and conceded an early penalty which Quade Cooper slotted. Cooper also wasted a massive overlap in the first ten minutes which could have given the Aussies some serious breathing space, but his elusive running in the early passages of play showed just how dangerous he can be. Indeed, after winning a free kick at a scrum, Cooper broke and fed Ashley-Cooper who seemed to initially benefit from some sluggish tackling, before Weepu and Muliaina produced a stunning combination tackle to prevent a certain try, but from the resulting 5 metre scrum (which replays suggest they were lucky to be awarded) the pressure finally told and Will Genia strolled through the gap between prop and hooker to go over next to the posts. Cooper kicked the extras to make it 10-0.

After 15 minutes, I started thinking the Aussies had maybe been underestimated by me on previous performances, and with Samo, Genia and Cooper pulling every imaginable string, I began to think the Aussies could really push for the World Cup if these three remain fit. This was possibly compounded by the fact that, in those opening exchanges, the All Blacks, particularly at half back, looked ponderous. In defence though it was a different matter and they systematically slowed the ball down (legally I might add), picked the occasionally fantastic angles of the Aussies and when not missing tackles, tackled ferociously in key areas to keep themselves in the game. The ever-reliable Carter kicked them to within 7 points mid-way through the first half, but it was very much a performance on the back foot for the New Zealanders, not being able to get any possession or territory. The steady drip of penalties again saw Cooper kick Australia 10 points clear after Nonu held back the man without the ball.

Straight from the kick-off, Pocock rose to take a high ball from above McCaw and Samo pushed Thompson off on his own ten metre line and sprinted 60 metres to score under the posts. The unbelievable score of 20-3 to the Aussies with 4 minutes to half-time now adorned the scoreboards, and most worryingly for Graham Henry was that this was 100% deserved. The All Blacks had no penetration and no inspiration. Even after a poor box kick from Genia went straight into touch, New Zealand couldn't profit and the disorganisation behind the scrum spoke volumes.

Half-time Australia 20 New Zealand 3

Two different teams took the field for the second half, or seemingly so. The 99% Blacks started in attritional mode, grinding the yards around the base of the maul, earning a penalty when Elsom came in from the side, and Carter took them within two scores. As the half went on, the considered approach started paying dividends, and in the 12th minute, from the 26th phase of possession, Carter fed Conrad Smith who ran over unopposed to put the cat amongst the pigeons. 10 unanswered points in the opening 13 minutes for the All Blacks and the Wallabies looked rattled; none more so than Quade Cooper, whose knee in the face of a prone New Zealand forward will no doubt provoke some action from the citing commissioner. 

Indeed when Nonu and Smith combined, somewhat chaotically initially, and Nonu found himself opposite a prop, the equalising try was scored. The phrase 'like a knife through butter' is used a little too often, but the second half had seen New Zealand's knife cutting through Australia's defence as if they were yoghurt, not butter, and there was only one winner from now on, or so you would think; Genia immediately slipped clear from another missed tackle, slipped it wide and Beale finished things off to give the Aussies the lead again, though only by 5 as Cooper missed the kick.  

Ill discipline should have cost New Zealand three more points after a needless obstruction as Ashley-Cooper followed a Genia kick, but Cooper missed a second consecutive kick to leave the game with a 1 score deficit. Crucially though the game was being played in the All Blacks' half now, and though Ellis looked more incisive than Weepu, the Aussies yoghurt defence had firmed up and as the game entered the last 7 minutes, it was truly anyone's game. Each time the Aussie defence looked like being prised open, the All Blacks were penalised at the breakdown though, and given their traditional strength in this area, and their dominance over the last few years, it must be worrying for Henry to see them being so easily dominated here as we enter the World Cup. 

The last ten minutes saw the pace, unsurprisingly, slow substantially, as the efforts of both sides started to show. As the All Blacks started one final attempt to steal the game, space seemed to open up, but Beale snagged an interception, and the Aussies rucked and mauled away the last 90 seconds, before a penalty saw them give Cooper the chance to belt the ball into touch and crown their first Tri-Nations success since 2001. 

New Zealand will regret a lacklustre 1st half and maybe even more so their weakened side which lost to South Africa last weekend. Australia will feel that they have a squad that can go to New Zealand with every chance of surprising their neighbours and taking the real trophy that matters back across the Tasman Sea at the end of October. The wisdom of such a high intensity game 2 weeks before the World Cup opener will be called into question again. Injuries to Keiran Reid and Adam Thompson could prove costly over the next 7 weeks.

Final Score Australia 25 New Zealand 20

Man of the Match - Radike Samo: a stunning 50 minutes from the 35 year old capped with a fantastic try. He popped up everywhere during Australia's early dominance and, should he stay fit and should his legs last the demands of Tournament rugby, Australia have a decent chance in New Zealand.

RWC 2011 Pool B Preview

A little earlier than previously predicted, due to me having forgotten that I had plans this weekend that involved being away from the creature comforts of wireless internet, laptop and iPad (what did I do before I got hold of this gadget?), here comes a preview of Pool B.

As the song goes "There'll always be an England", and in RWC terms, there has always been an England in the Final. Well, since 2003 there has. While 2003's victory was, if not completely expected, somewhat predictable, the appearance in the 2007 Final was a real surprise.

Indeed, 4 years ago, England suffered an awful mauling at the hands of the Springboks in the group stage, and my fear at the time was this would cause them to implode. However, with Brian Ashton performing miracles of a motivational kind, and with the big names stepping up and performing, they recovered to beat Tonga in what was effectively a sudden death match for qualification, before edging past Australia and France and reaching that final. On another day, they may have retained their title, but the South Africans were the best side and deservedly won their second final.

England are actually the second seeds in this group, with Argentina actually being the side ranked in the Top 4 when the Pools were announced. From that perspective, England got a good draw, as the Pumas have slipped substantially since 2007, and Scotland should not pose a problem outside of Murrayfield. The minnow of the group are Georgia and the returning Romania = absolute cannon fodder to not put too fine a point on it.

While England's build-up has been far from convincing, I sense a solidarity in the team, and with the experience provided by old heads such as Wilkinson, Tindall and Cueto behind the scrum, and Thompson, Easter and Moody up front, to say nothing of Simon Shaw (the last direct link of my playing days to professional rugby as we once locked horns in University days) who at 39 when the tournament starts will become the 2nd oldest player ever to grace the RWC.

England should have too much for everyone and should win the group with 4 wins. This will leave Argentina and Scotland playing off for 2nd place. The Pumas' stunning performance in France stirred the authorities into action belatedly as they tried to insist on their integration in an annual tournament (4 years to late to be of real benefit). Their squad looks a little weaker this time around; old in certain positions and too green in others. This is why I have them not competing with England. Continuing the music theme, I fear that "Don't Cry For Me Argentina" could be due an outing come the end of the Pool...

The reason being, that Scotland have been solid in their preparation matches, and Andy Robinson has turned them into a unit which wears the jersey with pride, which previous coaches had failed to do. They are an immensely proud Nation, and will give everything, but england will be a step too far for me, and I see Scotland's game with the Pumas being decisive and ultimately, if I remove the fence-like splinters from my derriere, I can see Scotland getting out of the Group. "Oh flower of Scotland, when will we see your like again?" Well, I guess it depends on what vintage we're looking for, QFs are attainable, but France or New Zealand in that Quarter Final will both be too strong for them.

Georgia and Romania will play off for 4th place effectively. Georgia are progressing and have some mighty forwards plying their trade in France (actually the high proportion of Argentinian, Italian, Georgian and Romanian prop forwards has left the French side with dilemmas in that area more than any other in recent years). There was a time in the 1980s that Romania were the 6th best side in Europe and were rumoured to be the side who would benefit and become the 6th Nation of the Northern hemisphere's foremost tournament. It didn't happen though, for any number of reasons both political, economic and pertaining to 'Old Farts'. What's for certain is that these two will be heading off home after the Pool stage; On a midnight train to Georgia? Probably not. I have them beating the Romanians though, and not just because I can't get the word Romania into a song title!

Time to get off the fence then I guess.

Predicted Pool B Standings

1. England, 2. Scotland, 3. Argentina, 4. Georgia, 5. Romania

Star of the Pool
The obvious candidate is Chris Ashton, whose tries and celebrations earned many column inches during England's 6 Nations Championship win. Fit and on form he is potentially the most devastating wing in World Rugby, as his positional play tends to see him in the right place at the right time more often that not. The potential star is another 'Englishman' in Manu Tuilagi. The Leicester centre has been stupendous this season, and after a sizeable rest at the end of the season due to, ironically, laying out his teammate Ashton with a real haymaker, he looks fresh and ready to go straight into England's problem centre position.

And finally...
The Tri-Nations decider this weekend sees New Zealand face Australia, and the All Blacks are back to something like full strength after putting the kids out against the South Africans last week. I remain far from convinced by the Australians, and this is their last chance to make me re-assess before I look at their Pool (I'm sure I can hear them quaking). New Zealand with a bonus point for me....

Meanwhile, in Dublin, Ireland and England complete their preparations with a repeat of the final game of this year's 6 Nations. A very different line-up on each side of the coin this time, and with neither side having really impressed in their warm-up games thus far, it could be a spicier game than you may otherwise have thought. No O'Driscoll or O'Brien for Ireland, and Wilkinson getting the nod for England may tilt the balance slightly in England's favour. Whatever, I can't shake the feeling that, useful though these warm-up matches must be on so many levels for the coaches, the feeling in the stands watching them is sometimes akin to that you get when watching a tin of magnolia dry on your walls (Note: I reserve the right to wax lyrical next week though if England win).

That's it for this blog. 2 more preview blogs to come over the next ten days or so, then I can get down to what I like best, the slightly off-beat look at the games as they start. Please add your comments or rate the blog at the bottom, all added encouragement gratefully received.

RWC 2011 - Pool A Preview

16 days to go till RWC11 (or #RWC11 if you’re a tweeter). Is it really nearly 4 years since South Africa broke a resurgent England’s resistance at the Stade de France? Is it really approaching 8 since Saint Jonny dropped the goal that won the Northern Hemisphere’s first trophy? Surely it’s not 24 years since this fantastic tournament spluttered into existence and saw David Kirk lift the crown for the host All Blacks.

Well, the answers are Yes, Yes (if you’ll forgive the premature canonisation of Mr Wilkinson) and Yes. I think of these 3, it has to be the last stat that provokes the most unbelievable offshoot statistic: New Zealand’s victory in that first tournament remains their only one, despite them being favourites in every single tournament bar one since.

The perennial underachievers, unsurprisingly, enter this tournament, which they will be hosting alone for the very first time, as massive favourites on the back of 4 years of near constant victories and following another pretty inspirational Tri Nations tournament – note 1 game still to go, but the All Blacks are massive favourites.

They have, if you believe the massed rugby writers, the best forward in the world in captain Richie McCaw, and the best back in the world, in Dan Carter. What could go wrong? What indeed? It is a question I have asked myself in the build-up to every single World Cup since 1987, always with the same answer: “I really can’t see anything beating them this time”. Yet each time, they have failed their rugby-mad Nation, who will not look upon failure anywhere near as sympathetically if it happens on their own doorstep on or before the 25^th September.

They kick off the tournament on 9^th September against the hard-hitting Tongans, who will as ever provide a physical presence to rival the very best, but whose tactical awareness usually leaves a lot to be desired. Indeed, in 3 games against New Zealand, 2 in World Cups, their best performance is a 45-9 defeat in Bristol in 1999, while the other 2 games have seen 102-0 and 91-7 reversals; hardly statistics to provoke any thoughts of an upset. That said, 4 years ago, they hit a jittery England very hard at the Parc des Princes in Paris, but naivety let England off the hook, and indeed resuscitated the England challenge. The All Blacks should be comfortable favourites for this and subsequent games against Canada and Japan.

The only real test of the All Blacks’ Group stage comes against their bête-noir (if I may be so bold as to use the word black in relation to a team other than New Zealand.... – Ref: the ridiculous reaction to England’s new change kit of black) France. France, for whatever reason seem to have the Indian sign over the All Blacks, and their Quarter Final win in Cardiff in 2007 on one of the Northern Hemisphere’s most glorious rugby days of all-time (England had earlier beaten Australia in Marseille) came at a point where most people would have had the engraver starting to work on the ‘N’ of 'New' on the Webb Ellis Cup. 1999 had earlier seen another memorable French triumph at Twickenham (I’ve never written that particular phrase before trust me) in a stunning semi final which thwarted the anticipated Anzac final.

As the French say “Jamais deux sans trois” which paraphrased means Good (or bad) things happen in threes. Can the French upset the applecart again? Who knows, but I would be very surprised, as I really can’t see anyone in the group beating them this time....

France have problems it has to be said; wingers failing drug tests, experienced props (Marconnet and Domingo) being overlooked at the last minute and a coach whose selection technique seems to have had the word bizarre invented for it. Marc Lievremont comes in for much criticism in the Hexagon and is being ridiculed as much as former National football coach Aime Jacquet before he won the World Cup in 1998 (omen?), and how he managed to keep his job after the defeat in Rome against Italy in March is beyond a lot of French rugby supporters. Lievremont looks more and more stressed and downtrodden every time I see him. Indeed, he looks remarkably like a French friend of mine who has accompanied me on several trips across Europe, and who as the day goes on and the Merlot and Guinness go down, takes on a tired look which rivals the stress-worn features of the coach come the end of a losing battle.

They shouldn't have anything to worry about in their games with the three minnows, so it will be a question of whether they give the New Zealand game (24^th Sept in Auckland) their absolute everything or whether they let it go by and save some juice for the Quarter Finals. They are in an advantageous situation as, being in the same pool as the All Blacks, they can’t meet them again before the Final. Given that both halves of the draw would appear as difficult as each other, I’d be tempted to free-wheel a little in that first encounter I think.

The Tongans, Japanese and Canadians will play out an interesting battle for 3^rd place in the group. 12^th, 13^th and 14^th in the IRB’s rankings, they couldn’t be closer, and indeed Japan and Canada played out the only draw of the 2007 World Cup, while Tonga beat Samoa and the USA and came within a score of the Springboks to finish 3^rd in their pool. Much of the interest of the World Cup for me is seeing how these smaller nations progress from tournament to tournament, so this “Tri-Nations” championship within Pool A promises much.

Predicted Pool A Table:
1 New Zealand, 2 France, 3 Tonga, 4 Japan, 5 Canada

Star of the Pool: This should be Dan Carter, though 130kg Tongan prop forward Soane Tonga’uiha will be looking to reinforce a growing reputation after a big season in England’s Premiership with Northampton, and not many will look forward to facing him.

I look forward to reading your comments......

Pool B will follow next, probably at the weekend I would have thought. England start their campaign for a 3^rd consecutive final against Argentina, Scotland, Romania and Georgia.

In the meantime, feel free to follow me on Twitter @markbonsall and to share this blog with anyone you feel may be interested.

A New Venture

I have been fortunate enough to travel Europe watching rugby of the highest order, with good friends as company and meeting new friends on every occasion. As I embark on my biggest and longest journey to New Zealand for Rugby World Cup 2011, I decided to create this blog to allow me to share photos and thoughts (serious, anecdotal and who knows journalistic). I am sure there will be a certain element of travelog about this too, but I will try to emphasise the rugby more than anything else.

Hopefully this will grow to become a regular blog, even after the RWC11 experience has come to an end. I'm looking forward to interaction from friends, friends of friends and friends of friends of friends, so feel free to circulate this link to anyone you think may find this of interest.

My schedule is to arrive in New Zealand for the business end of the tournament, and my first game will be England vs Scotland at Eden Park, Auckland. I then attend every other game at that stadium over the remaining 23 days, including the Final. Trips around New Zealand have been shoe-horned into the weeks between the games and I'll hope to bring some colour and anecdotes from my travels too. Until then you will be able to see my thoughts on the different games before I head out to Auckland.

Starting this week there will be a preview of each of the Pools, with my predictions (such as they are) as to who will progress and who will be going home early. So share the link amongst people you think may be interested, and feel free to comment on any article I publish, I look forward to the interaction.

Hope you enjoy the blog, and look forward to hearing from you as this place grows.