It's The Most Wonderful Time... Of The Year

6 Nations is back folks! Well it will be tomorrow afternoon when 2 of the 3 shades of blue the tournament has to offer confront each other in St Denis, France. The rugby season still builds to this event for me. Yes, the Heineken Cup has provided much needed intrigue and interest through the season, ensuring that February is not the first time we see a Frenchman. Terrestrial tv coverage, and matches starting at different times, ensures that this is, for some, their only involvement with rugby for the year.

In my youth (who am I kidding, I'm still young!) the highlight was Grandstand heading over to the great Bill McLaren at Murrayfield, or Nigel Starmer-Smith and his well-spoken enthusiasm at Twickenham, for 90 minutes of blood and thunder rugby. Now coverage is as professional as the players who play the game. Huge teams of analysts pick their way through previous encounters, highlight the ones to watch and show us the sites of the evocative cities which host games. These analysts wouldn't know a fence to sit on if it existed (watch the post-game wind-up with the sound off and it is instantly obvious by the face of Jonathan Davies or Jeremy Guscott whether England or Wales have won. And that sums up the Six Nations.... 1 word: PASSION.

So what of the 2012 version? England, let us not forget, are the reigning champions. Defeat in Dublin did not take away that trophy and a changed side, led by new skipper Chris Robshaw and under the coaching of Stuart Lancaster will defend the title won by Martin Johnson's side and raised by Lewis Moody. Only the most fervent fan would have them as favourites to retain the trophy though, as that honour goes to the French, with the Welsh second favourites in the bookmakers', if not my, eyes.

So to my predictions. A list for you to cross off as they are made to be false. We will see how close I am at the end of the tournament in a little over 7 weeks time:

1. France will win the title. World Cup Finalists, strength in depth, friendly fixture list. Everything in their favour.
2. There will be no Grand Slam in 2012. France will slip up once.
3. Ireland will win the Triple Crown. An away win at Twickenham will seal this.
4. England will win 3 games. The first 3.
5. Scotland will lose in Italy. Italy's tournament will build to this final game.
6. Vincent Clerc will be the leading tryscorer. Pace and a pure sniffer (France will use him too)
7. Jonny Sexton or Owen Farrell will be leading points scorer
8. Wales will disappoint their supporters who expect way more after their World Cup than they have to offer
9. Wesley Fofana of France will make a massive impact
10. William Servat will underline why is by far the best hooker in world rugby
11. England's discipline will be much better under Lancaster
12. Scotland will continue to struggle to score tries
13. The finishing order will be France, Ireland, England, Wales, Italy, Scotland
14. There will be 1 drawn game
15. There will be no red cards

I must dash. Feel free to add any predictions to this list by using the comments below. I will have a review of each game here, but you can also follow me on http://therugbyblog.co.uk/ for whom I am following Ireland this year. Follow me also on Twitter @theeggchaser or you can e-mail me on marktheeggchaser@googlemail.com

That's all for now. Happy 6 Nations everyone, may the best team win! Do you think I mean that?

RWC 2011 - Pool C Preview

11 and a bit days only now till the 7th edition of the Rugby World Cup kicks off. I hope you're enjoying these Pool previews, which are intended to inform those who maybe know little about the game, and give food for thought to those who know a little more, hopefully all with a little bit of humour thrown in.

So far, I've predicted a New Zealand route march, with the French snapping at their heels in second place in Pool A, and England headed Pool B, with the Scots sneaking by an ageing Argentina to grab a Quarter Final place.

Today I'm looking at Pool C, which while on paper slightly more straightforward, has a couple of interesting battles bubbling under the surface.

The two biggest names in the pool - Australia and Ireland - have had a contrasting month, which may well have seen them both re-assess their targets as we enter the competition. Italy sit as third favourites, while the 2 most populous nations in the tournament, USA and Russia, will be making up the numbers.

Let's look at this Pool in reverse, and start with the team who have never graced this stage before. Russia are a much improved side, and have benefited enormously from the IRB World 7s Series, where they have had some pretty high profile victories. The recent decision to elevate 7s to an Olympic sport will benefit the game in Russia as it will now benefit from financial input of a much higher level from the government, and it will become an integral part of Physical Education programs in Russian schools. All looks good for the future then for Russia, but in terms of 2011, a win against the USA is the best they can expect. Three defeats against the USA since 2004, by ever decreasing margins, show promise and with the USA game being Russia's debut on this stage, maybe they can step up... tough game to call.

The USA seem to have reached a level on the World stage. The big dream of the IRB used to be to get the game growing in the USA (a little like FIFA's dream for our round-balled cousins) to take the Rugby World Cup to the fabled 'next level'. I'm not sure this is either viable or necessary to be honest. The IRB does need some of the second tier Nations to stand up and be counted, like Argentina over the last 12 years, in order for this tournament to not be seen as the sole domain of the Tri/Six Nations mafia. Whether that is the USA, Russia, Canada or a Pacific Islands side is irrelevant as far as I am concerned. The USA, as Russia, have some outstanding athletes who are capable of making an impact with some searing plays as proved by Takudzwa Ngwenya whose Try of the Tournament 4 years ago saw him burn off Bryan Habana no less. They will still be battling for 4th place at best though in Pool C.

"Fratelli d'Italia, I'Italia s'e desta" Sorry, any thoughts of Italian rugby immediately get me singing the marvellous National anthem. Italy have grown steadily over the last 6 or 7 years with a succession of high profile coaches, but just seem to be teetering on the brink of making that next big step. Since entering the 6 Nations, initially as whipping boys, they have now recorded 6 Nations wins against Wales, Scotland and memorably France earlier this year. That win, allied with Ireland's appalling preparations will have seen Nick Mallett's men grow in confidence, and with talismanic Number 8 Sergio Parisse to the fore, you just never know. That said, I see a 2-2 record and 3rd place in the Pool.

As good as Ireland have been in recent years, they have under-performed at World Cups. You could argue that they have been particularly unlucky with the Pools they have drawn (France and Argentina - both semi-finalists) in 2007, Australia and Argentina in 2003 (a tough route through to an eventual QF defeat by France) and a 1999 QF Play-off loss to Argentina, but irrespective of that, they have under-performed when you compare results with Scotland for example.

With a fully-fit squad, and such pre-eminent names as O'Driscoll, O'Connell, O'Brien, O'Callaghan, Wallace and Heaslip having good tournaments, they could well have been up there pushing hard against Australia in the pool or South Africa, probably, in the Quarter Finals. Any hope of such a performance will have dissipated as defeats to Scotland (6-10), France (12-19 and 22-26) and England (9-20) along with injuries to Sean O'Brien and David Wallace, left the preparations in turmoil. A win against Australia now looks unthinkable, and the efforts will be focused on a fully professional performance against Italy (last pool game in Dunedin, 2nd October).

Australia, conversely, have had a good month. Since their victory in the 2001 Tri Nations Trophy victory, the Wallabies had not picked up any silverware of any value. Sure, they had won Bledisloe Cup matches, and Cook Cup matches and one-off matches for pointless ridiculously-named trophies, but no World Cup and no Tri Nations trophy since then, and the feeling to an outsider was that the Australians' traditionally small talent pool (losing a lot of potential stars to the 13 man game) had finally caught up with them. However, 3 wins from 4 in this year's Tri Nations, with the only defeat coming against New Zealand in New Zealand, see them rising to prominence at the right time. A superb set of half backs, with inspiration pace and quick feet (in Cooper's case a quicker set of feet than brain) see Genia and Cooper pulling strings, and Elsom, Pocock and Samo will pressure any side from the back row. Their lack of front row presence and no real centre pairing could well be their downfall ultimately. Top of the Pool with 4 from 4 without a shadow of a doubt for me.

Predicted Pool C Standings


1. Australia 2. Ireland 3. Italy 4. USA 5. Russia

Star of the Pool


Radike Samo - impressed massively in the recent victory against New Zealand and given the opposition in these Pool games, I expect Samo to run through sides almost at will, before being rested after 50 minutes to an hour. Quade Cooper will certainly spark the Australian backs and he will be worth keeping an eye on too. A fit Sean O'Brien will show why he is so highly rated for Ireland, and Sergio Parisse will no doubt lead from the front as always for the Azzurri.

And finally....


Australia and Ireland have history in the World Cup. One of the most thrilling games took place in 1991 when it took an inspired combination between Michael Lynagh and David Campese to break Irish hearts and send Australia on to their first trophy against the English.

Shane Jennings is the Irish beneficiary of David Wallace's injury. The Leinster back row forward, while not in Wallace's league, is a more than reliable replacement.

This weekend sees substantially weakened sides take the field for the start of the English Premier League and the RaboDirect Pro12 League (Wales, Ireland, Scotland and Italy). You can't win a League in the first two months of a season, but you can certainly lose it, and many sides have made interesting recruitment over the summer, with ex and unwanted internationals being hot properties (Stephen Donald the ex-All Black being possibly the highest profile recruitment by Bath).

Quade Cooper is a very lucky boy. How anyone could think his knee to the face of Richie McCaw was not deliberate is beyond me. He should learn from this, but I don't think he will; there's a bit of a wild one in his head, and I think this will cost Australia at some point during the World Cup.

Last week's Predictions were mixed. An England win was bang on the nose, but an All Blacks win with a bonus point was way off the mark. I can't stress how disappointed I was with the All Blacks, particularly around the breakdown and at half back. There are a lot of coaches who will have analysed this performance with smiles on their faces as they start to see cracks in what was previously an impenetrable All Blacks wall. It all bodes well for a cracking tournament

Hope you enjoyed the read. One more preview to come this week, then a couple more articles highlighting the World Cup, before we get going on the 9th September with New Zealand Tonga.

Spread the word about the blog to anyone you feel may be interested. There have been an encouraging number of views so far, and I hope this continues to grow.

England Back On Track As Ireland Continue To Falter

The sun greeted the kick-off at Lansdowne Road (to me, irrespective of sponsorship deals, it will always be Lansdowne Road). Ireland, unconvincing in their warm-up games so far, welcomed England, unconvincing in their warm-up games so far. Injury concerns on both sides of the tape, and Hendrie Fourie went straight into the side having been out of the World Cup 30 earlier in the week. England's Grand Slam dreams had been dashed in this very stadium 5 months previously, when they gave their least convincing performance in some time, but Ireland sensed blood that day and there was something at stake then.

After the Irish version of the Haka, a rendition of the uniting Ireland's call, England started ominously. 2 minutes of possession, Fourie to the fore on three occasions, before a series of big Irish tackles drove them back to such a disorganised extent that Wilkinson tried a drop from near halfway. England were buoyed by this though, and took the lead on 5 minutes, before Ireland had been out of their half. Haskell picked up and hit the blind side from a scrum, quick ball for once allowed England to ship it wide through Wilkinson and Tindall, where Tuilagi exploited the gap with great pace and power to stroll home untouched. Wilkinson added the conversion, and England had a deserved 7-0 lead. 

Ireland seemed to wake up with this though, and twice earned penalties in England's half. The first they tried the corner route, but a bad line-out thwarted this. The second was nearer to the posts, following a late charge on Murphy, and O'Gara slotted this between the sticks to get the Irish on the board at 3-7. No sooner this though, than England's tight 5 put a huge squeeze on in front of the Irish posts, and the Irish had to stand up and concede an easy penalty for the metronomic Wilkinson to stretch the lead to 7 once more.

Ireland continued to push for the try, spurning 2 more kicks at goal and Redden somehow finding Cueto when with a little care, the corner was begging. Cueto's interception was the only way England could have avoided conceding, but Redden really should have done better. On 18 minutes, England were pinged bizarrely by touch judge Poite for a forward pass. Poite is an up and coming official, who referees the scrums as well as anyone, but his vision was somewhat errant on this occasion. Ireland got another penalty under the sticks for a breakdown infringement. Advantage was played before the penalty was given, and the bad news for Ireland was that David Wallace, the influential back row forward, was seemingly severely injured in the advantage play; another victim of a last minute injury?

O'Gara kicked the penalty, and Wilkinson retorted following a high tackle on the Irish 22 to make it 13-6 to the English, who looked far more incisive, probably due to the combination of quicker ball and Tuilagi's presence. Tuilagi was making his presence felt at both ends of the pitch and only a great last-ditch tackle by Murphy prevented a 3rd try in a game and a half in an England shirt. A little bit of chess followed, with the only incident of note being the precautionary removal of Heaslip with a slight injury, before O'Gara slotted a 3rd penalty following another England penalty, after which referee Nigel Owens gave the England captain the traditional warning of 'next cynical one goes for 10 minutes'.

A fired-up Croft and Healy exchanged pleasantries on the floor a couple of minutes before the half-time break. Healy lost a contact lens, England didn't lose Croft. Ireland pushed hard during the last 90 seconds, but solid scrambled defence from the away side saw them take the changing rooms with a 4 point lead. 3 important players, 2 Irishmean (Wallace and Heaslip) and 1 Englishman (Cueto), plus the back-up England flanker Fourie, had limped off during a tough first half in Dublin.

Half time Ireland 9 England 13

One minute into the second half, and Chris Ashton was the man who paid the penalty for England's persistent infringement at the breakdown, as he received a yellow card from Mr Owens before O'Gara hit the post with the subsequent penalty. England's 14 men did what short-handed sides need to do. They kept the ball in hand and shared the workload amongst themselves. Tindall, captain for the day, weighted a kick through perfectly for Delon Armitage who dropped over for England's second try to provoke strains of Swing Low Sweet Chariot... strains which were booed and whistled down by the home fans. Wilkinson had the last word from the touchline to make it 9-20.

The usual raft of second half changes, along with a torrential downpour, made continuity difficult in the second half, and both sides seemed pretty niggly meaning lots of penalties. With the rains come Flood, but not here as Wilkinson remained on the field with Wigglesworth who had a quietly efficient game. As usual in such circumstances, the kicking game comes to the fore, and Sexton, who had replaced O'Gara, and Armitage, both put in a couple of magnificent kicks. Inspirational moments were few and far between in a messy second half though, and with the ball more and more resembling a bar of soap, errors killed most positive intentions. It had become a game for the grafters, and the rise to prominence of O'Connell in green and Tindall in white was evidence of that. 2 of the doughtiest scrappers had big second half impacts. 

As the last ten minutes arrived, and with the conditions not improving, Armitage badly sliced a kick from his own 22 allowing the solid Ireland line-out a good position from which to build an attack. Clean ball came, and Ireland went through the phases, but all was a little slow due to both excellent defence in midfield and the rain, and the attack petered out in an England line-out on the other side of the field. Any semblance of Irish penetration had completely gone now, as they missed D'Arcy and O'Driscoll (who wouldn't) and the game finished in a straightforward England win. A game which clearly lacked the intensity of this morning's battle in Brisbane, but then there was nothing on this one.

Final Score Ireland 9 England 20

Men of the Match - Manu Tuilagi and Mike Tindall. An early try, some destructive tackling, a finely placed kick and the required penetration in midfield. Impossible to split these two, who give England a promising partnership in their problem position at last. They're not Carling and Guscott, they're not O'Driscoll and D'Arcy, but they're a good unit. 

Thoughts

Ireland finish their World Cup warm-up matches with a record of Played 4, Lost 4. Any forward momentum, any optimism, any warm feeling has been completely dispelled by a dreadful August. Admittedly, they missed O'Brien, O'Driscoll, D'Arcy and were further reduced during the game with the loss of Wallace and Heaslip. Their performances have left them thankful that they are in a pool that shouldn't cause too many problems (Australia aside, they should beat Italy, USA and Russia). There is no way though that they can compete with the probable Quarter Final opponents, South Africa. Let's not get ahead of ourselves though here. Declan Kidney is a shrewd coach, and assuming all his big names come through their various trials and tribulations, I'm sure he'll have picked them up by the time they land in New Zealand.

England however will bounce toward the plane after recording their first win in Dublin since they were crowned World Champions in 2003. I was a little nervous going into this game given the result in Cardiff 2 weeks ago, but another solid performance up front, where there are options across the board now for England, allied with improved performances at half back and the emergence of a centre partnership worthy of the name, means Martin Johnson can look forward to his World Cup with a little more confidence than he otherwise would have.

I hope you've enjoyed my take on today's two big Internationals. I will be back with the Pool C and D previews during the week. Keep the comments coming and follow me on twitter for more succinct comment and views.