RWC 2011 - Pool C Preview

11 and a bit days only now till the 7th edition of the Rugby World Cup kicks off. I hope you're enjoying these Pool previews, which are intended to inform those who maybe know little about the game, and give food for thought to those who know a little more, hopefully all with a little bit of humour thrown in.

So far, I've predicted a New Zealand route march, with the French snapping at their heels in second place in Pool A, and England headed Pool B, with the Scots sneaking by an ageing Argentina to grab a Quarter Final place.

Today I'm looking at Pool C, which while on paper slightly more straightforward, has a couple of interesting battles bubbling under the surface.

The two biggest names in the pool - Australia and Ireland - have had a contrasting month, which may well have seen them both re-assess their targets as we enter the competition. Italy sit as third favourites, while the 2 most populous nations in the tournament, USA and Russia, will be making up the numbers.

Let's look at this Pool in reverse, and start with the team who have never graced this stage before. Russia are a much improved side, and have benefited enormously from the IRB World 7s Series, where they have had some pretty high profile victories. The recent decision to elevate 7s to an Olympic sport will benefit the game in Russia as it will now benefit from financial input of a much higher level from the government, and it will become an integral part of Physical Education programs in Russian schools. All looks good for the future then for Russia, but in terms of 2011, a win against the USA is the best they can expect. Three defeats against the USA since 2004, by ever decreasing margins, show promise and with the USA game being Russia's debut on this stage, maybe they can step up... tough game to call.

The USA seem to have reached a level on the World stage. The big dream of the IRB used to be to get the game growing in the USA (a little like FIFA's dream for our round-balled cousins) to take the Rugby World Cup to the fabled 'next level'. I'm not sure this is either viable or necessary to be honest. The IRB does need some of the second tier Nations to stand up and be counted, like Argentina over the last 12 years, in order for this tournament to not be seen as the sole domain of the Tri/Six Nations mafia. Whether that is the USA, Russia, Canada or a Pacific Islands side is irrelevant as far as I am concerned. The USA, as Russia, have some outstanding athletes who are capable of making an impact with some searing plays as proved by Takudzwa Ngwenya whose Try of the Tournament 4 years ago saw him burn off Bryan Habana no less. They will still be battling for 4th place at best though in Pool C.

"Fratelli d'Italia, I'Italia s'e desta" Sorry, any thoughts of Italian rugby immediately get me singing the marvellous National anthem. Italy have grown steadily over the last 6 or 7 years with a succession of high profile coaches, but just seem to be teetering on the brink of making that next big step. Since entering the 6 Nations, initially as whipping boys, they have now recorded 6 Nations wins against Wales, Scotland and memorably France earlier this year. That win, allied with Ireland's appalling preparations will have seen Nick Mallett's men grow in confidence, and with talismanic Number 8 Sergio Parisse to the fore, you just never know. That said, I see a 2-2 record and 3rd place in the Pool.

As good as Ireland have been in recent years, they have under-performed at World Cups. You could argue that they have been particularly unlucky with the Pools they have drawn (France and Argentina - both semi-finalists) in 2007, Australia and Argentina in 2003 (a tough route through to an eventual QF defeat by France) and a 1999 QF Play-off loss to Argentina, but irrespective of that, they have under-performed when you compare results with Scotland for example.

With a fully-fit squad, and such pre-eminent names as O'Driscoll, O'Connell, O'Brien, O'Callaghan, Wallace and Heaslip having good tournaments, they could well have been up there pushing hard against Australia in the pool or South Africa, probably, in the Quarter Finals. Any hope of such a performance will have dissipated as defeats to Scotland (6-10), France (12-19 and 22-26) and England (9-20) along with injuries to Sean O'Brien and David Wallace, left the preparations in turmoil. A win against Australia now looks unthinkable, and the efforts will be focused on a fully professional performance against Italy (last pool game in Dunedin, 2nd October).

Australia, conversely, have had a good month. Since their victory in the 2001 Tri Nations Trophy victory, the Wallabies had not picked up any silverware of any value. Sure, they had won Bledisloe Cup matches, and Cook Cup matches and one-off matches for pointless ridiculously-named trophies, but no World Cup and no Tri Nations trophy since then, and the feeling to an outsider was that the Australians' traditionally small talent pool (losing a lot of potential stars to the 13 man game) had finally caught up with them. However, 3 wins from 4 in this year's Tri Nations, with the only defeat coming against New Zealand in New Zealand, see them rising to prominence at the right time. A superb set of half backs, with inspiration pace and quick feet (in Cooper's case a quicker set of feet than brain) see Genia and Cooper pulling strings, and Elsom, Pocock and Samo will pressure any side from the back row. Their lack of front row presence and no real centre pairing could well be their downfall ultimately. Top of the Pool with 4 from 4 without a shadow of a doubt for me.

Predicted Pool C Standings


1. Australia 2. Ireland 3. Italy 4. USA 5. Russia

Star of the Pool


Radike Samo - impressed massively in the recent victory against New Zealand and given the opposition in these Pool games, I expect Samo to run through sides almost at will, before being rested after 50 minutes to an hour. Quade Cooper will certainly spark the Australian backs and he will be worth keeping an eye on too. A fit Sean O'Brien will show why he is so highly rated for Ireland, and Sergio Parisse will no doubt lead from the front as always for the Azzurri.

And finally....


Australia and Ireland have history in the World Cup. One of the most thrilling games took place in 1991 when it took an inspired combination between Michael Lynagh and David Campese to break Irish hearts and send Australia on to their first trophy against the English.

Shane Jennings is the Irish beneficiary of David Wallace's injury. The Leinster back row forward, while not in Wallace's league, is a more than reliable replacement.

This weekend sees substantially weakened sides take the field for the start of the English Premier League and the RaboDirect Pro12 League (Wales, Ireland, Scotland and Italy). You can't win a League in the first two months of a season, but you can certainly lose it, and many sides have made interesting recruitment over the summer, with ex and unwanted internationals being hot properties (Stephen Donald the ex-All Black being possibly the highest profile recruitment by Bath).

Quade Cooper is a very lucky boy. How anyone could think his knee to the face of Richie McCaw was not deliberate is beyond me. He should learn from this, but I don't think he will; there's a bit of a wild one in his head, and I think this will cost Australia at some point during the World Cup.

Last week's Predictions were mixed. An England win was bang on the nose, but an All Blacks win with a bonus point was way off the mark. I can't stress how disappointed I was with the All Blacks, particularly around the breakdown and at half back. There are a lot of coaches who will have analysed this performance with smiles on their faces as they start to see cracks in what was previously an impenetrable All Blacks wall. It all bodes well for a cracking tournament

Hope you enjoyed the read. One more preview to come this week, then a couple more articles highlighting the World Cup, before we get going on the 9th September with New Zealand Tonga.

Spread the word about the blog to anyone you feel may be interested. There have been an encouraging number of views so far, and I hope this continues to grow.

Aussies Edge All Blacks In Thriller

Australia's home advantage was neutralised by the posturing that is the Haka; yes I know it's tradition and as a spectacle it is truly something, but this has long since passed the stage of being a "laying down of a challenge" and sides use a fair bit of mental energy facing up to it in any way they choose. England's reaction to it during the days of Richard Cockerill remains fresh in the memory, and the different methods of facing up to it in recent times have met with a variety of success. Sebastien Chabal's idea of lining up in red, white and blue tracksuits to leave a visual impact on their opponents seemed to inspire the French in the 2007 Quarter Final though.  

Psychological advantage duly taken, the 99% Blacks, as they really ought to be known given the white collar on their new shirts (isn't it more than a little ironic the fuss that was made about England moving to an All Black away kit at a time when the ALL Blacks moved from a 100% black shirt?), started under severe pressure and conceded an early penalty which Quade Cooper slotted. Cooper also wasted a massive overlap in the first ten minutes which could have given the Aussies some serious breathing space, but his elusive running in the early passages of play showed just how dangerous he can be. Indeed, after winning a free kick at a scrum, Cooper broke and fed Ashley-Cooper who seemed to initially benefit from some sluggish tackling, before Weepu and Muliaina produced a stunning combination tackle to prevent a certain try, but from the resulting 5 metre scrum (which replays suggest they were lucky to be awarded) the pressure finally told and Will Genia strolled through the gap between prop and hooker to go over next to the posts. Cooper kicked the extras to make it 10-0.

After 15 minutes, I started thinking the Aussies had maybe been underestimated by me on previous performances, and with Samo, Genia and Cooper pulling every imaginable string, I began to think the Aussies could really push for the World Cup if these three remain fit. This was possibly compounded by the fact that, in those opening exchanges, the All Blacks, particularly at half back, looked ponderous. In defence though it was a different matter and they systematically slowed the ball down (legally I might add), picked the occasionally fantastic angles of the Aussies and when not missing tackles, tackled ferociously in key areas to keep themselves in the game. The ever-reliable Carter kicked them to within 7 points mid-way through the first half, but it was very much a performance on the back foot for the New Zealanders, not being able to get any possession or territory. The steady drip of penalties again saw Cooper kick Australia 10 points clear after Nonu held back the man without the ball.

Straight from the kick-off, Pocock rose to take a high ball from above McCaw and Samo pushed Thompson off on his own ten metre line and sprinted 60 metres to score under the posts. The unbelievable score of 20-3 to the Aussies with 4 minutes to half-time now adorned the scoreboards, and most worryingly for Graham Henry was that this was 100% deserved. The All Blacks had no penetration and no inspiration. Even after a poor box kick from Genia went straight into touch, New Zealand couldn't profit and the disorganisation behind the scrum spoke volumes.

Half-time Australia 20 New Zealand 3

Two different teams took the field for the second half, or seemingly so. The 99% Blacks started in attritional mode, grinding the yards around the base of the maul, earning a penalty when Elsom came in from the side, and Carter took them within two scores. As the half went on, the considered approach started paying dividends, and in the 12th minute, from the 26th phase of possession, Carter fed Conrad Smith who ran over unopposed to put the cat amongst the pigeons. 10 unanswered points in the opening 13 minutes for the All Blacks and the Wallabies looked rattled; none more so than Quade Cooper, whose knee in the face of a prone New Zealand forward will no doubt provoke some action from the citing commissioner. 

Indeed when Nonu and Smith combined, somewhat chaotically initially, and Nonu found himself opposite a prop, the equalising try was scored. The phrase 'like a knife through butter' is used a little too often, but the second half had seen New Zealand's knife cutting through Australia's defence as if they were yoghurt, not butter, and there was only one winner from now on, or so you would think; Genia immediately slipped clear from another missed tackle, slipped it wide and Beale finished things off to give the Aussies the lead again, though only by 5 as Cooper missed the kick.  

Ill discipline should have cost New Zealand three more points after a needless obstruction as Ashley-Cooper followed a Genia kick, but Cooper missed a second consecutive kick to leave the game with a 1 score deficit. Crucially though the game was being played in the All Blacks' half now, and though Ellis looked more incisive than Weepu, the Aussies yoghurt defence had firmed up and as the game entered the last 7 minutes, it was truly anyone's game. Each time the Aussie defence looked like being prised open, the All Blacks were penalised at the breakdown though, and given their traditional strength in this area, and their dominance over the last few years, it must be worrying for Henry to see them being so easily dominated here as we enter the World Cup. 

The last ten minutes saw the pace, unsurprisingly, slow substantially, as the efforts of both sides started to show. As the All Blacks started one final attempt to steal the game, space seemed to open up, but Beale snagged an interception, and the Aussies rucked and mauled away the last 90 seconds, before a penalty saw them give Cooper the chance to belt the ball into touch and crown their first Tri-Nations success since 2001. 

New Zealand will regret a lacklustre 1st half and maybe even more so their weakened side which lost to South Africa last weekend. Australia will feel that they have a squad that can go to New Zealand with every chance of surprising their neighbours and taking the real trophy that matters back across the Tasman Sea at the end of October. The wisdom of such a high intensity game 2 weeks before the World Cup opener will be called into question again. Injuries to Keiran Reid and Adam Thompson could prove costly over the next 7 weeks.

Final Score Australia 25 New Zealand 20

Man of the Match - Radike Samo: a stunning 50 minutes from the 35 year old capped with a fantastic try. He popped up everywhere during Australia's early dominance and, should he stay fit and should his legs last the demands of Tournament rugby, Australia have a decent chance in New Zealand.