Cryptic that title I guess, but focus shifts for the next couple of months in Europe from the Heineken Cup, with its Quarter Final line up done and dusted, to the RBS 6 Nations, where everything is far from done and dusted.
6 teams, all with a reasonable amount of optimism going into the tournament given either their club sides' form in the various club competitions or the quality of names in their squads, kick off next weekend (February 4th) and do battle over 5 of the next 7 weekends until the 2nd most prestigious trophy in World rugby is handed over to the successful captain.
The flip side of the coin though sees 6 teams who have a lot to prove coming off the back of varying World Cup campaigns, and in 3 of the cases, with new coaches at the helm. Let's have a quick look at the different sides involved.
Italy
New coach Jacques Bruneel takes over a side which will be confident that it can build on the successes of last year. England and Scotland visit Rome this year, and I am sure Italian targets will be at least 1 victory this year to back up the huge step forward made in Nick Mallett's last season, with the home win over France and general improved performances both in the 6 Nations and the World Cup. One concern will be that the squad is ageing once more, and talismanic though he is, Sergio Parisse cannot go on for ever. Bruneel's task is tricky then: continue the progress while bringing in and blooding new talent.
France
A World Cup Final defeat in Marc Lievremont's final game may seem like a solid enough starting platform, but the performances leading up to that Final were anything but convincing. The Tongan defeat and the 2 defeats against the All Blacks mean that they have only won 4 of their last 7 games, and in only one of those four have they played well against a major side (QF vs England). Philippe Saint-Andre knows his stuff though, and France are rightly up there amongst the favourites, with home advantage against England and Ireland a major plus.
Scotland
A first ever failure to reach the World Cup Quarter Finals, where try scoring was a major issue, leaves doubts as to the ability of Andy Robinson's side to break down well-organised defences, and the 6 Nations provides those in abundance. The positives came this autumn with the form of the clubs sides, particularly Edinburgh, who achieved a home Heineken Cup Quarter Final, and a start against a more-than-likely nervous England set-up could give them some impetus to show well. I fear, though, that a defeat could see the wheels fall off and a potential wooden spoon play-off in Rome on the final weekend.
Wales
there seems to be an aura about the Welsh side at the moment. Impenetrable by even the slightest criticism. I, however, am not completely sold on the Welsh yet. Yes, they performed well in adversity in that World Cup semi final. Yes they took a well-deserved win from the Irish in the Quarter Finals. However, they still lost 3 out of 7 in New Zealand and it is that, for me, perceived inability to win the tight games that has me worried a little. They have key men in key positions (Warburton, Priestland, North and Roberts) and I worry that, if a couple of those don't perform, Wales may struggle to be the side that the majority of watchers think they are. I accept that I am in the minority here, and am ready to eat my words if need be, but I believe we will learn a lot about Wales in Dublin on the first weekend.
Ireland
Declan Kidney has gone for experience over youth this year, and has been roundly criticised for doing so in different media. I though think he has made (mostly) the right choices. The World Cup defeat to Wales still rankles, as Ireland had the weapons to win that game, and I think the attitude Ireland will take into the tournament is one of wanting to prove people wrong. I have always been a great believer in a strong spine making a strong side. By spine I mean 2, 8, 9, 10 and 15. In Rory Best, Jamie Heaslip, Conor Murray, Jonathan Sexton and Rob Kearney, Ireland have a spine to compete with the best of them. Best is only bettered in Europe by William Servat and Murray is a much better and more complete player after another autumn of Provincial rugby. Ireland are my outside tip for the title.
England
New coach, all manners of retirements and injuries, off-field shenanigans at all levels. There really is no way a side with all these troubles can win the tournament. It must be said though that England, with the wealth of players at their disposal and the dogged attitude that will be instilled by Stuart Lancaster, can never be completely ruled out. The World Cup failings have been well documented, and using my spine analogy from the previous paragraph, numbers 8, 9 and 10 went missing for large periods in New Zealand, and England limped their way home as a result. 3 wins out of 5 would be a good return this year and may tempt the RFU to continue with Lancaster at the helm. Anything less and he is guaranteed to be back on Saxons duty, anything more and he will still not be guaranteed a longer term contract.
Weekend 1 - Revenge In The Air
The first round of games sees a wonderful mix of games, with a major feeling of revenge tinting all three of them. First up are France and Italy. 2 new coaches and France still smarting from their Roman defeat of 2011. Add to the intrigue the fact that the new Italian coach is French and there is a definite edge to this opener that there wouldn't have been this time last year.
Hot on the heels of this, England walk into the cauldron of a Calcutta Cup game at Murrayfield. Scotland, eliminated from the World Cup by England, will also have revenge on their minds. They will want to hit England early and not let Lancaster's men find their feet and settle into their game plan. If they do, and if they can grind out an early lead, Scotland could well cause an upset of sorts.
Finally, on Sunday, the World Cup Quarter Final is replayed in Dublin. No BOD for Ireland, no Shane Williams for Wales. Wales looking to build on the victory in said Quarter Final, while Ireland will be hoping to continue the momentum developed recently by Leinster, Munster and Ulster in the Heineken Cup.
I'm going for France, England and Ireland in these 3, though I've not decided on margins yet... I will wait to see the line-ups before finally committing.
So if you like your rugby hot with a hint of revenge, then you only have 9 days to wait. There will be a more complete set of predictions here next week, and also have a look out for my preview piece of Ireland's chances which will be appearing on The Rugby Blog www.therugbyblog.co.uk next week. I will be covering Ireland for them throughout the tournament
Thursday, 26 January 2012
Friday, 20 January 2012
I Can See Clearly Now (Part 1)
Jimmy Cliff's classic could apply to this final round of Heineken and Amlin games, as with each passing game, the picture becomes clearer as to the Quarter Final line-ups.
It all started with Thursday's Amlin Challenge Group 5 games. Agen handed a 6th brutal stuffing to Spanish champions La Vila (though is it me, or where once we saw 80-odd point defeats, are we now seeing 60-odd point defeats?) while the Top 2 played off at Edgeley Park. After an emotional minute's silence, Sale started the better, the tactic of having Brive's bus stopped on the Motorway clearly bearing fruit... I jest. Sale took a 9-3 lead, only to relinquish 3 points on the stroke of half-time. Still, the 8 point margin required was within a score. Not for long though. Brive equalised, and when the Sharks turned down an easy, preferring to go for a try, and knocked on, a trick had been missed. Ever more needy as the game went on, they tried to force the pace, with Burrell and Miller particularly shining in adversity, but Brive scored the only try of the night through the ubiquitous and excellent Claassens, and Caminati added conversion and a 4th penalty to leave Sale out to dry at 9-19. Brive qualified with 6 out of 6. Sale finished a gallant second and can concentrate on the Premiership.
Friday Evening
Gloucester vs Toulouse on the big screen, Connacht vs Harlequins on the small one. Time delay on one, but you can't have everything. Toulouse's destiny in their own hands, Harlequins requiring help from Gloucester to guarantee their qualification rather than having to wait on the result from Clermont-Ferrand.
Gloucester started promisingly, and for 61 seconds looked good, until Nick Wood, overlooked by England for their EPS, was sin-binned for reckless use of the feet. The Shed agreed whole-heartedly of course. Clearly, Matanavou disagreed and he gave Gloucester a welcome present with a dreadful piece of attempted line-clearing with 3 Gloucester backs in his face: charge-down, touched down, Toulouse 7-0 down. Harlequins clearly weren't in the mood for receiving generosity and in turn gave away a kickable penalty which O'Connor translated into 3 points.
Toulouse were irked clearly, and when a gap opened up the World Player of the Year (somehow) went under the posts and made it 7-5, the conversion tying things up. Almost simultaneously, Quins went in at the corner through Sam Smith to take the lead 5-3. The wind preventing the kick. Gloucester, meanwhile, through a clever kick and chase from Tindall, earned a penalty, and Burns hit the post.
As you can tell, a frantic opening 10 minutes, which ended with both Toulouse and Gloucester with a theoretical 20 points (which would see Toulouse qualify).
Gloucester infringed in front of their sticks on 13 allowing Beauxis to push Toulouse ahead, and a moment later O'Connor succeeded with another penalty to put Connacht ahead. With the wind behind, Connacht were playing the right sort of game. Matanavou made up for his ghastly error, running in an easy try after sweet Toulouse hands, and O'Connor slotted another 3 in Galway. The keyboard is seeing smoke come up as I try to follow everything, and after 20, Toulouse led 17-7 while Connacht edged Harlequins 9-5.
Gloucester's points had come from a sheer gift. Toulouse bossed the opening hands down. Quins were meanwhile building pressure in the Connacht 22 and eventually won a penalty which, given the wind, they were wise to put in the corner. A front throw, a rolling maul.... a knock-on. Wasted opportunity. Gloucester though finally produced quick ball, worked a simple overlap and sent Qera in in the corner. Burns converted and Gloucester were back within 3 at 17-14.
Harlequins and Connacht were involved ina "proper rugby game" in Galway. Wind, rain, errors - everything we experienced on the pitch at school. As the clock ticked round to 30 mins in Gloucester, Toulouse were up by 3 and Quins behind, though the wind would certainly help their second half cause.
Gloucester and Toulouse were both offering plenty of attacking flare. Gloucester growing more and more into the game as the first half went on. Beauxis hit the post with the last kick of the first half though, as it ended 17-14 to the visitors. A high quality and entertaining 40 minutes of rugby. Harlequins were blunted by the conditions, as were Connacht of course. The attritional nature of the game meant 4 minutes delay versus the game at Kinghsolm. With three minutes to half time, Quins were penalised and O'Connor, to put it politely, missed.
At half-time Toulouse were qualified and Harlequins were on their way out. 40 minutes is a long time though, and with the wind at their backs, Harlequins were still favourites.
Beauxis missed a long-distance penalty in the first meaningful action of the second half at Kingsholm but as Gloucester replied, another clever kick from Tindall, collected by May, who fed Sharples and Gloucester had a third try and the lead. If it fed through to Galway, Quins would feel the confidence ebb through their veins. Burns kick hit the post and looked to go over, but the two touch judges who were next to it, decided they need tv evidence, which confirmed the kick and Gloucester led 21-17.
Harlequins still needed to turn things round in Ireland, and started the second half camped in Connacht territory. A great chip through and Monye just failed to grab a ball which bounced extremely high, and Connacht escaped with a 5 metre scrum. Quins were camped deep in the 22 though, and both English sides were showing strongly in the early moments of the second half. In 8 minutes, Connacht had not spent a second in the Quins half.
Gloucester stretched the lead to 7 after Burns successfully kicked a penalty following a Toulouse offside. Burns tried again from his own half 5 minutes later, but was a good 7 or 8 yards short. Toulouse had been quiet for long periods, but Matanavou went over for his second try of the evening, which Beauxis converted to make it 24-24: enough for them to qualify. Quins nudged back into it with an Evans penalty to make it 9-8 Connacht. The tightness of the Heineken Cup never more in evidence than tonight.
As the weather took its toll, Harlequins experience started to bear fruit. Silly errors from Connacht meant they continually faced extreme pressure. From a basic knock-on in the 22, Harlequins scrum again took its toll and won another penalty. Evans lined up a kick which he missed, shortly followed by a successful kick from Burns at Kingsholm. Gloucester led, Harlequins should have led, but Toulouse still scraped through as it stood.
Were this not enough, Gloucester took the ball from deep, Simpson Daniel fed a rampaging May who went over in the corner to score a 4th try, converted by Burns, to give them a 34-24 lead. 10 minutes remained in Galway for Quins to turn things around and ensure qualification. Quins hands were just not good enough though and knock-on from Brown cost them dearly. A final scrum in Connacht territory and Harlequins needed to provoke a penalty. Gloucester and Toulouse had finished 3 minutes earlier and this was truly the last throw of the dice. Quins could not manage it though, and now need an Ulster win and a miracle draw between Biarritz and Ospreys to qualify themselves.
Toulouse win the Pool, but lose the home Quarter Final in all probability. Harlequins look like Amlin Quarter Finalists now.
Phew. Rendez-vous tomorrow? Thought so.
It all started with Thursday's Amlin Challenge Group 5 games. Agen handed a 6th brutal stuffing to Spanish champions La Vila (though is it me, or where once we saw 80-odd point defeats, are we now seeing 60-odd point defeats?) while the Top 2 played off at Edgeley Park. After an emotional minute's silence, Sale started the better, the tactic of having Brive's bus stopped on the Motorway clearly bearing fruit... I jest. Sale took a 9-3 lead, only to relinquish 3 points on the stroke of half-time. Still, the 8 point margin required was within a score. Not for long though. Brive equalised, and when the Sharks turned down an easy, preferring to go for a try, and knocked on, a trick had been missed. Ever more needy as the game went on, they tried to force the pace, with Burrell and Miller particularly shining in adversity, but Brive scored the only try of the night through the ubiquitous and excellent Claassens, and Caminati added conversion and a 4th penalty to leave Sale out to dry at 9-19. Brive qualified with 6 out of 6. Sale finished a gallant second and can concentrate on the Premiership.
Friday Evening
Gloucester vs Toulouse on the big screen, Connacht vs Harlequins on the small one. Time delay on one, but you can't have everything. Toulouse's destiny in their own hands, Harlequins requiring help from Gloucester to guarantee their qualification rather than having to wait on the result from Clermont-Ferrand.
Gloucester started promisingly, and for 61 seconds looked good, until Nick Wood, overlooked by England for their EPS, was sin-binned for reckless use of the feet. The Shed agreed whole-heartedly of course. Clearly, Matanavou disagreed and he gave Gloucester a welcome present with a dreadful piece of attempted line-clearing with 3 Gloucester backs in his face: charge-down, touched down, Toulouse 7-0 down. Harlequins clearly weren't in the mood for receiving generosity and in turn gave away a kickable penalty which O'Connor translated into 3 points.
Toulouse were irked clearly, and when a gap opened up the World Player of the Year (somehow) went under the posts and made it 7-5, the conversion tying things up. Almost simultaneously, Quins went in at the corner through Sam Smith to take the lead 5-3. The wind preventing the kick. Gloucester, meanwhile, through a clever kick and chase from Tindall, earned a penalty, and Burns hit the post.
As you can tell, a frantic opening 10 minutes, which ended with both Toulouse and Gloucester with a theoretical 20 points (which would see Toulouse qualify).
Gloucester infringed in front of their sticks on 13 allowing Beauxis to push Toulouse ahead, and a moment later O'Connor succeeded with another penalty to put Connacht ahead. With the wind behind, Connacht were playing the right sort of game. Matanavou made up for his ghastly error, running in an easy try after sweet Toulouse hands, and O'Connor slotted another 3 in Galway. The keyboard is seeing smoke come up as I try to follow everything, and after 20, Toulouse led 17-7 while Connacht edged Harlequins 9-5.
Gloucester's points had come from a sheer gift. Toulouse bossed the opening hands down. Quins were meanwhile building pressure in the Connacht 22 and eventually won a penalty which, given the wind, they were wise to put in the corner. A front throw, a rolling maul.... a knock-on. Wasted opportunity. Gloucester though finally produced quick ball, worked a simple overlap and sent Qera in in the corner. Burns converted and Gloucester were back within 3 at 17-14.
Harlequins and Connacht were involved ina "proper rugby game" in Galway. Wind, rain, errors - everything we experienced on the pitch at school. As the clock ticked round to 30 mins in Gloucester, Toulouse were up by 3 and Quins behind, though the wind would certainly help their second half cause.
Gloucester and Toulouse were both offering plenty of attacking flare. Gloucester growing more and more into the game as the first half went on. Beauxis hit the post with the last kick of the first half though, as it ended 17-14 to the visitors. A high quality and entertaining 40 minutes of rugby. Harlequins were blunted by the conditions, as were Connacht of course. The attritional nature of the game meant 4 minutes delay versus the game at Kinghsolm. With three minutes to half time, Quins were penalised and O'Connor, to put it politely, missed.
At half-time Toulouse were qualified and Harlequins were on their way out. 40 minutes is a long time though, and with the wind at their backs, Harlequins were still favourites.
Beauxis missed a long-distance penalty in the first meaningful action of the second half at Kingsholm but as Gloucester replied, another clever kick from Tindall, collected by May, who fed Sharples and Gloucester had a third try and the lead. If it fed through to Galway, Quins would feel the confidence ebb through their veins. Burns kick hit the post and looked to go over, but the two touch judges who were next to it, decided they need tv evidence, which confirmed the kick and Gloucester led 21-17.
Harlequins still needed to turn things round in Ireland, and started the second half camped in Connacht territory. A great chip through and Monye just failed to grab a ball which bounced extremely high, and Connacht escaped with a 5 metre scrum. Quins were camped deep in the 22 though, and both English sides were showing strongly in the early moments of the second half. In 8 minutes, Connacht had not spent a second in the Quins half.
Gloucester stretched the lead to 7 after Burns successfully kicked a penalty following a Toulouse offside. Burns tried again from his own half 5 minutes later, but was a good 7 or 8 yards short. Toulouse had been quiet for long periods, but Matanavou went over for his second try of the evening, which Beauxis converted to make it 24-24: enough for them to qualify. Quins nudged back into it with an Evans penalty to make it 9-8 Connacht. The tightness of the Heineken Cup never more in evidence than tonight.
As the weather took its toll, Harlequins experience started to bear fruit. Silly errors from Connacht meant they continually faced extreme pressure. From a basic knock-on in the 22, Harlequins scrum again took its toll and won another penalty. Evans lined up a kick which he missed, shortly followed by a successful kick from Burns at Kingsholm. Gloucester led, Harlequins should have led, but Toulouse still scraped through as it stood.
Were this not enough, Gloucester took the ball from deep, Simpson Daniel fed a rampaging May who went over in the corner to score a 4th try, converted by Burns, to give them a 34-24 lead. 10 minutes remained in Galway for Quins to turn things around and ensure qualification. Quins hands were just not good enough though and knock-on from Brown cost them dearly. A final scrum in Connacht territory and Harlequins needed to provoke a penalty. Gloucester and Toulouse had finished 3 minutes earlier and this was truly the last throw of the dice. Quins could not manage it though, and now need an Ulster win and a miracle draw between Biarritz and Ospreys to qualify themselves.
Toulouse win the Pool, but lose the home Quarter Final in all probability. Harlequins look like Amlin Quarter Finalists now.
Phew. Rendez-vous tomorrow? Thought so.
Thursday, 19 January 2012
Elementary My Dear Watson
It's that weekend when the 24 teams in the Heineken Cup learn their fate. Well I say 24, but it's actually a lot less as some are already resigned to theirs: non-qualification for the Quarter Finals, not even descending into the Amlin Challenge as recompense for their efforts in the 5 Rounds so far. There are still many permutations though, so before the weekend starts, let's run through them Pool by Pool, team by team, to ensure that you know the score before the games kick-off.
Pool 6
A logical place to start obviously. Actually, these are the Friday night games, so as I've decided to attack this chronologically, that's where we begin. Connacht's debut season has been tough, and they unfortunately are resigned to their fate. 2 losing bonus points is scant reward for their efforts, and their final involvement this year will be to try and put a spanner in the works of Harlequins' well-oiled machine. Gloucester too know their finishing position; a tough pool for the cherry and whites and but for a couple of close defeats, they could well be preparing for a huge game at home to Toulouse. As it is, they are looking to finish on a high while doing their Premiership rivals a favour.
The real interest is in the other two sides. A Toulouse win sees them qualify. A home Quarter FInal will only be lost if Munster, Leinster, Ulster and Saracens all win, or if 3 of the 4 win and Edinburgh win with a bonus point, while Cardiff don't win. Home QFs are difficult to predict really, but if a gun were held to my head, I'd suggest Toulouse will get one.
Harlequins can qualify as Group winners if they win and Toulouse lose, if they win with a bonus point and Toulouse draw, or if they draw with a bonus point and Toulouse don't score any points. Runners-up qualification will be assured with a win and an Ulster loss (without bonus point) or an Ulster win.
Confused yet? Good, it gets better trust me.
Pool 3
Saturday kicks off with a relatively straightforward mathemetical case. Bath and Montpelier are adrift. Leinster have ruled the roost in this Pool, their highlight being a whooping of Bath, and a win would guarantee a Home QF. Glasgow are the current incumbents of second place, and a bonus point win would see them clinging to an Amlin Challenge lifeline which could become reality if 3 of the following 5 things happen (deep breath): Munster beat Northampton, Scarlets and Leicester don't get bonus point wins, Ospreys and Biarritz draw and Harlequins don't score a point and score 4 less tries than Glasgow themselves do.
So it's bye bye Glasgow
Pool 4
Aironi have long since been resigned to their fate. I could unkindly suggest that that has been the case since the balls came out of the bag at the draw, but I won't. Leicester can still qualify for the Amlin with a bonus point win and other results going their way (Harlequins defeat, Clermont defeat, Northamton defeat for example). The real interest though is at Stade Marcel Michelin, where ASM Clermont Auvergne host Ulster. An Ulster win will see them welcome a Quarter Final at Ravenhill. A loss with no bonus point will see them nervously looking at Harlequins, Cardiff and Edinburgh, as wins for all three would see them eliminated and into the Amlin Challenge. Clermont, theoretically, could still qualify with a draw or bonus point defeat, but that is highly unrealistic and defeat at home would probably mean Challenge Quarter Finals for them.
Pool 1
Saturday's final denouement is Pool 1, where Munster are qualified and with a win at Northampton will ensure another home Quarter Final at Thomond Park. Contrary to popular belief, Northampton can still theoretically qualify for the Quarters themselves. A bonus point win, allied to a 0 point defeat for Cardiff or Edinburgh, a 0 point defeat for Clermont, a 4 point win for Ospreys or Biarritz in their head-to head and defeat for Harlequins, and the Saints could even qualify as best runner-up. Odds please Mr Ladbrokes? Scarlets, by beating Castres comfortably and seeing Northampton lose at home to Munster, could also qualify for the Amlin Quarters. Castres are out.
Pool 5
Sunday, Bloody Sunday. Sentiments I am sure most of us feel as the weekend ends, yet this Sunday could be bloody for the Ospreys or Biarritz. Saracens need a mere losing bonus point in Treviso to qualify for the Quarters and dispel the gloom surrounding English rugby. Meanwhile, a bonus point win for either the Welsh or French side could see them qualify, if Clermont, Cardiff or Edinburgh slip up. Treviso will finish bottom, but have had their moments this year against Biarritz home and away, and continue to progress.
Pool 2
Cardiff and Edinburgh both know: win and they qualify. Both are at home against teams with other things on their minds as neither can qualify for even the Amlin Challenge, so really, this should be straightforward, if anything can ever be said to be straightforward in this crazy competition. A draw or losing bonus point could also be enough to qualify, depending on results in Clermont, Biarritz and Treviso.
London Irish and Racing Metro 92 are both left counting the cost of inconsistency and looking to qualify for next year's competition through their League placings.
So there you have it. Clear as mud isn't it. Little by little, as each Pool reaches its conclusion, lines will be drawn through teams' names. 6 live games to behold on the box thanks to Sky, 6 more to be followed in parallel on the faithful iPad thanks to SkyGo. I don't think I've ever watched 12 games of rugby in a single weekend before.
Finally, my predicted QF line-ups as per last weekend's blog:
Toulouse (22) vs Clermont (20)
Munster (21) vs Cardiff (21)
And for completeness, my Amlin Challenge 8 Quarter FInalists:
Stade Francais, Toulon, Wasps, Perpignan, Sale, Northampton, Ulster, Biarritz
Check back over the weekend to see how I've done.
Pool 6
A logical place to start obviously. Actually, these are the Friday night games, so as I've decided to attack this chronologically, that's where we begin. Connacht's debut season has been tough, and they unfortunately are resigned to their fate. 2 losing bonus points is scant reward for their efforts, and their final involvement this year will be to try and put a spanner in the works of Harlequins' well-oiled machine. Gloucester too know their finishing position; a tough pool for the cherry and whites and but for a couple of close defeats, they could well be preparing for a huge game at home to Toulouse. As it is, they are looking to finish on a high while doing their Premiership rivals a favour.
The real interest is in the other two sides. A Toulouse win sees them qualify. A home Quarter FInal will only be lost if Munster, Leinster, Ulster and Saracens all win, or if 3 of the 4 win and Edinburgh win with a bonus point, while Cardiff don't win. Home QFs are difficult to predict really, but if a gun were held to my head, I'd suggest Toulouse will get one.
Harlequins can qualify as Group winners if they win and Toulouse lose, if they win with a bonus point and Toulouse draw, or if they draw with a bonus point and Toulouse don't score any points. Runners-up qualification will be assured with a win and an Ulster loss (without bonus point) or an Ulster win.
Confused yet? Good, it gets better trust me.
Pool 3
Saturday kicks off with a relatively straightforward mathemetical case. Bath and Montpelier are adrift. Leinster have ruled the roost in this Pool, their highlight being a whooping of Bath, and a win would guarantee a Home QF. Glasgow are the current incumbents of second place, and a bonus point win would see them clinging to an Amlin Challenge lifeline which could become reality if 3 of the following 5 things happen (deep breath): Munster beat Northampton, Scarlets and Leicester don't get bonus point wins, Ospreys and Biarritz draw and Harlequins don't score a point and score 4 less tries than Glasgow themselves do.
So it's bye bye Glasgow
Pool 4
Aironi have long since been resigned to their fate. I could unkindly suggest that that has been the case since the balls came out of the bag at the draw, but I won't. Leicester can still qualify for the Amlin with a bonus point win and other results going their way (Harlequins defeat, Clermont defeat, Northamton defeat for example). The real interest though is at Stade Marcel Michelin, where ASM Clermont Auvergne host Ulster. An Ulster win will see them welcome a Quarter Final at Ravenhill. A loss with no bonus point will see them nervously looking at Harlequins, Cardiff and Edinburgh, as wins for all three would see them eliminated and into the Amlin Challenge. Clermont, theoretically, could still qualify with a draw or bonus point defeat, but that is highly unrealistic and defeat at home would probably mean Challenge Quarter Finals for them.
Pool 1
Saturday's final denouement is Pool 1, where Munster are qualified and with a win at Northampton will ensure another home Quarter Final at Thomond Park. Contrary to popular belief, Northampton can still theoretically qualify for the Quarters themselves. A bonus point win, allied to a 0 point defeat for Cardiff or Edinburgh, a 0 point defeat for Clermont, a 4 point win for Ospreys or Biarritz in their head-to head and defeat for Harlequins, and the Saints could even qualify as best runner-up. Odds please Mr Ladbrokes? Scarlets, by beating Castres comfortably and seeing Northampton lose at home to Munster, could also qualify for the Amlin Quarters. Castres are out.
Pool 5
Sunday, Bloody Sunday. Sentiments I am sure most of us feel as the weekend ends, yet this Sunday could be bloody for the Ospreys or Biarritz. Saracens need a mere losing bonus point in Treviso to qualify for the Quarters and dispel the gloom surrounding English rugby. Meanwhile, a bonus point win for either the Welsh or French side could see them qualify, if Clermont, Cardiff or Edinburgh slip up. Treviso will finish bottom, but have had their moments this year against Biarritz home and away, and continue to progress.
Pool 2
Cardiff and Edinburgh both know: win and they qualify. Both are at home against teams with other things on their minds as neither can qualify for even the Amlin Challenge, so really, this should be straightforward, if anything can ever be said to be straightforward in this crazy competition. A draw or losing bonus point could also be enough to qualify, depending on results in Clermont, Biarritz and Treviso.
London Irish and Racing Metro 92 are both left counting the cost of inconsistency and looking to qualify for next year's competition through their League placings.
So there you have it. Clear as mud isn't it. Little by little, as each Pool reaches its conclusion, lines will be drawn through teams' names. 6 live games to behold on the box thanks to Sky, 6 more to be followed in parallel on the faithful iPad thanks to SkyGo. I don't think I've ever watched 12 games of rugby in a single weekend before.
Finally, my predicted QF line-ups as per last weekend's blog:
Leinster (24) vs Harlequins (20)
Saracens (23) vs Edinburgh (21)Toulouse (22) vs Clermont (20)
Munster (21) vs Cardiff (21)
And for completeness, my Amlin Challenge 8 Quarter FInalists:
Stade Francais, Toulon, Wasps, Perpignan, Sale, Northampton, Ulster, Biarritz
Check back over the weekend to see how I've done.
Sunday, 15 January 2012
Down To The Wire
As predicted, this year's Heineken Cup Pools are generally going down to the wire. No prizes for that prediction, given that it happens every year I suppose, but as we enter the final round of matches, there are still 11 teams with a shout at the H Cup Quarter Finals, some of those shouts decent, some requiring nigh-on a miracle.
Let's look back at (another) great weekend and see how each Pool is affected. With a small nod to next week too...
Pool 1
Munster became the first team to qualify, with a 5th consecutive victory in a tricky Pool. Another struggle though, at home against Castres, was ultimately won by their forwards (what's new?) with Paul O'Connell standing out for me. Donnacha Ryan also continue to impress, but they are chugging along in a low gear, and the big question is whether there is more to come or whether they need a major pitstop. Northampton stumbled past Castres to take second place for the moment. They will be regretting 2 things at the moment: the 'Gara drop goal at Thomond Park and the home defeat to the Scarlets that came off the back of it. Had either of those results gone the other way, we would be looking at one of the all-time great Pool games next week with a winner takes all occasion in front of 22,000 people. As it is, Saints only have a potential Challenge semi final to look forward to
Next week sees Castre vs Scarlets and Northampton vs Munster. I see 2 home wins, with Munster picking up one point. The top 2 therefore will be
Munster 21, Northampton 16
Pool 2
Cardiff Blues and Edinburgh both won this weekend, Edinburgh with a last gasp drop goal against one of the big disappointments Racing. Cardiff won a tight one against London Irish, whose inconsistent Heineken campaign matches their inconsistency in the Premiership. Their goal now has to be a Top 6 place and another crack at the Heineken next year. Cardiff and Edinburgh are level on points at the top, but Cardiff meet Racing, while Edinburgh entertain Irish next week. Anyone's guess as to who progresses as group winners, but should both win, both would qualify, though winning the group would be a huge advantage in terms of the draw obviously.
I see both sides winning next week, but don't see Edinburgh bettering Cardiff's points tally, which means a top 2 of
Cardiff 21, Edinburgh 21
Pool 3
Montpellier scraped past Bath for their first Heineken win after 2 draws. Turn those draws into wins, and they would be right in line for a qualification showdown with Leinster next week. However, as it is
they leave the competition with much experience gained, and much credit for giving the tournament a go (I'm thinking of the shoddy effort in the past of Bourgoin-Jaillieu here). Leinster came up against a digged and gutsy Glasgow, for whom Kellock and Gray showed strongly, and were indebted to second half tries from Kearney and Boss to see them to a win. Glasgow have grown this year, and it is a shame that they will lose Gray to Sale come May, but Scotland will be optimistic for the impending visit of England in the 6 Nations. Leinster join Munster in the second round as a result of the win, but like their rivals, they will be far from happy with the way they are playing currently.
I see Leinster winning at home to Montpellier next week while Bath just beat Glasgow at the Rec. So:
Leinster 24, Glasgow 12
Pool 4
Aironi were the ulucky ones in this year's Heineken Cup. 2 former winners and one of the favourites in their Pool, so no surprise to see them bottom. Seeing Leicester unceremoniously dumped by Ulster at Ravenhill for the second time was a surprise though. After a first half which was tough, but nothing insurmountable, Twelvetrees hit the post with a kick he should have made, and Leicester went missing. Big names and big forwards were engulfed by wave after wave of Ulster attack, and a 41-7 drubbing followed. Clermont ran in 12 tries in Italy to set up a decider at Marcel Michelin against Ulster next weekend. Winner goes through, loser, if Ulster, would need bonus point(s) and results to go their way to go through as runners'up.
Leicester reserves will take their frustration out on Aironi next week, while Clermont will have far too much for Ulster at home and will take the win while Ulster don't pick up a bonus point.
Clermont 20, Ulster 19
Pool 5
Ospreys win on Friday night against Treviso kept them in the mix. Treviso's win against Biarritz meant that only one side was likely to qualify from this pool. Saracens hosted Biarritz in Watford rather than the initially proposed Cape Town. Saracens at Vicarage Road is a tough task, and Biarritz having struggled in their domestic championship and without half of their talismanic pair (Yachvili was present but Harinordoquy not) they looked a bit short. Sarries scored through a lovely darting finish by Spencer, but Biarritz fought back well and a Yachvili try gave them hope, only for Saracens to cling to a 4 point lead thanks to Owen Farrell's boot. Strettle showed well for Sarries, while Barritt's performance proved his lack of dimensions, and his limits as a potential England centre
Next week should see a Saracens win in Treviso, and a Biarritz win at home to Ospreys
Saracens 23, Biarritz 17
Pool 6
Toulouse and Harlequins both won their home games to set up a last weekend shoot-out between the two. Quins were dogged against an improved and solid Gloucester, while Toulouse strolled past Connacht with 4 tries to stretch their lead at the top to 2 points. 2 tricky away games next weekend for the hopeful pair, as Harlequins go to Connacht while Toulouse face the shed. Neither home side has anything other than pride to play for, so 2 away wins could be on the cards. Were that to happen, I could see both sides qualifying, but I have a sneaking feeling that Gloucester could upset the Toulouse apple-cart next weekend. Time will tell.
I can see Quins winning in Connacht, though a bonus point may be too much to ask for. Gloucester vs Toulouse depends on Gloucester's frame of mind and selection. If I had to put my house on it though, I'd plump for Toulouse, just.
Toulouse 22, Harlequins 20
So, I have the seedings as (with group points in brackets):
Toulouse (22) vs Clermont (20)
Munster (21) vs Cardiff (21)
That would also see Northampton, Ulster and Biarritz drop into the Amlin Challenge.
Another incredible weekend of tension, drama and good quality rugby. The Heineken Cup continues to reinforce its position as the best club competition in World rugby. Roll on next Friday
Let's look back at (another) great weekend and see how each Pool is affected. With a small nod to next week too...
Pool 1
Munster became the first team to qualify, with a 5th consecutive victory in a tricky Pool. Another struggle though, at home against Castres, was ultimately won by their forwards (what's new?) with Paul O'Connell standing out for me. Donnacha Ryan also continue to impress, but they are chugging along in a low gear, and the big question is whether there is more to come or whether they need a major pitstop. Northampton stumbled past Castres to take second place for the moment. They will be regretting 2 things at the moment: the 'Gara drop goal at Thomond Park and the home defeat to the Scarlets that came off the back of it. Had either of those results gone the other way, we would be looking at one of the all-time great Pool games next week with a winner takes all occasion in front of 22,000 people. As it is, Saints only have a potential Challenge semi final to look forward to
Next week sees Castre vs Scarlets and Northampton vs Munster. I see 2 home wins, with Munster picking up one point. The top 2 therefore will be
Munster 21, Northampton 16
Pool 2
Cardiff Blues and Edinburgh both won this weekend, Edinburgh with a last gasp drop goal against one of the big disappointments Racing. Cardiff won a tight one against London Irish, whose inconsistent Heineken campaign matches their inconsistency in the Premiership. Their goal now has to be a Top 6 place and another crack at the Heineken next year. Cardiff and Edinburgh are level on points at the top, but Cardiff meet Racing, while Edinburgh entertain Irish next week. Anyone's guess as to who progresses as group winners, but should both win, both would qualify, though winning the group would be a huge advantage in terms of the draw obviously.
I see both sides winning next week, but don't see Edinburgh bettering Cardiff's points tally, which means a top 2 of
Cardiff 21, Edinburgh 21
Pool 3
Montpellier scraped past Bath for their first Heineken win after 2 draws. Turn those draws into wins, and they would be right in line for a qualification showdown with Leinster next week. However, as it is
they leave the competition with much experience gained, and much credit for giving the tournament a go (I'm thinking of the shoddy effort in the past of Bourgoin-Jaillieu here). Leinster came up against a digged and gutsy Glasgow, for whom Kellock and Gray showed strongly, and were indebted to second half tries from Kearney and Boss to see them to a win. Glasgow have grown this year, and it is a shame that they will lose Gray to Sale come May, but Scotland will be optimistic for the impending visit of England in the 6 Nations. Leinster join Munster in the second round as a result of the win, but like their rivals, they will be far from happy with the way they are playing currently.
I see Leinster winning at home to Montpellier next week while Bath just beat Glasgow at the Rec. So:
Leinster 24, Glasgow 12
Pool 4
Aironi were the ulucky ones in this year's Heineken Cup. 2 former winners and one of the favourites in their Pool, so no surprise to see them bottom. Seeing Leicester unceremoniously dumped by Ulster at Ravenhill for the second time was a surprise though. After a first half which was tough, but nothing insurmountable, Twelvetrees hit the post with a kick he should have made, and Leicester went missing. Big names and big forwards were engulfed by wave after wave of Ulster attack, and a 41-7 drubbing followed. Clermont ran in 12 tries in Italy to set up a decider at Marcel Michelin against Ulster next weekend. Winner goes through, loser, if Ulster, would need bonus point(s) and results to go their way to go through as runners'up.
Leicester reserves will take their frustration out on Aironi next week, while Clermont will have far too much for Ulster at home and will take the win while Ulster don't pick up a bonus point.
Clermont 20, Ulster 19
Pool 5
Ospreys win on Friday night against Treviso kept them in the mix. Treviso's win against Biarritz meant that only one side was likely to qualify from this pool. Saracens hosted Biarritz in Watford rather than the initially proposed Cape Town. Saracens at Vicarage Road is a tough task, and Biarritz having struggled in their domestic championship and without half of their talismanic pair (Yachvili was present but Harinordoquy not) they looked a bit short. Sarries scored through a lovely darting finish by Spencer, but Biarritz fought back well and a Yachvili try gave them hope, only for Saracens to cling to a 4 point lead thanks to Owen Farrell's boot. Strettle showed well for Sarries, while Barritt's performance proved his lack of dimensions, and his limits as a potential England centre
Next week should see a Saracens win in Treviso, and a Biarritz win at home to Ospreys
Saracens 23, Biarritz 17
Pool 6
Toulouse and Harlequins both won their home games to set up a last weekend shoot-out between the two. Quins were dogged against an improved and solid Gloucester, while Toulouse strolled past Connacht with 4 tries to stretch their lead at the top to 2 points. 2 tricky away games next weekend for the hopeful pair, as Harlequins go to Connacht while Toulouse face the shed. Neither home side has anything other than pride to play for, so 2 away wins could be on the cards. Were that to happen, I could see both sides qualifying, but I have a sneaking feeling that Gloucester could upset the Toulouse apple-cart next weekend. Time will tell.
I can see Quins winning in Connacht, though a bonus point may be too much to ask for. Gloucester vs Toulouse depends on Gloucester's frame of mind and selection. If I had to put my house on it though, I'd plump for Toulouse, just.
Toulouse 22, Harlequins 20
So, I have the seedings as (with group points in brackets):
Leinster (24) vs Harlequins (20)
Saracens (23) vs Edinburgh (21)Toulouse (22) vs Clermont (20)
Munster (21) vs Cardiff (21)
That would also see Northampton, Ulster and Biarritz drop into the Amlin Challenge.
Another incredible weekend of tension, drama and good quality rugby. The Heineken Cup continues to reinforce its position as the best club competition in World rugby. Roll on next Friday
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