Down To The Wire

 As predicted, this year's Heineken Cup Pools are generally going down to the wire. No prizes for that prediction, given that it happens every year I suppose, but as we enter the final round of matches, there are still 11 teams with a shout at the H Cup Quarter Finals, some of those shouts decent, some requiring nigh-on a miracle.

Let's look back at (another) great weekend and see how each Pool is affected. With a small nod to next week too...

Pool 1
Munster became the first team to qualify, with a 5th consecutive victory in a tricky Pool. Another struggle though, at home against Castres, was ultimately won by their forwards (what's new?) with Paul O'Connell standing out for me. Donnacha Ryan also continue to impress, but they are chugging along in a low gear, and the big question is whether there is more to come or whether they need a major pitstop. Northampton stumbled past Castres to take second place for the moment. They will be regretting 2 things at the moment: the 'Gara drop goal at Thomond Park and the home defeat to the Scarlets that came off the back of it. Had either of those results gone the other way, we would be looking at one of the all-time great Pool games next week with a winner takes all occasion in front of 22,000 people. As it is, Saints only have a potential Challenge semi final to look forward to

Next week sees Castre vs Scarlets and Northampton vs Munster. I see 2 home wins, with Munster picking up one point. The top 2 therefore will be

Munster 21, Northampton 16

Pool 2
Cardiff Blues and Edinburgh both won this weekend, Edinburgh with a last gasp drop goal against one of the big disappointments Racing. Cardiff won a tight one against London Irish, whose inconsistent Heineken campaign matches their inconsistency in the Premiership. Their goal now has to be a Top 6 place and another crack at the Heineken next year. Cardiff and Edinburgh are level on points at the top, but Cardiff meet Racing, while Edinburgh entertain Irish next week. Anyone's guess as to who progresses as group winners, but should both win, both would qualify, though winning the group would be a huge advantage in terms of the draw obviously.

I see both sides winning next week, but don't see Edinburgh bettering Cardiff's points tally, which means a top 2 of

Cardiff 21, Edinburgh 21

Pool 3
Montpellier scraped past Bath for their first Heineken win after 2 draws. Turn those draws into wins, and they would be right in line for a qualification showdown with Leinster next week. However, as it is
they leave the competition with much experience gained, and much credit for giving the tournament a go (I'm thinking of the shoddy effort in the past of Bourgoin-Jaillieu here). Leinster came up against a digged and gutsy Glasgow, for whom Kellock and Gray showed strongly, and were indebted to second half tries from Kearney and Boss to see them to a win. Glasgow have grown this year, and it is a shame that they will lose Gray to Sale come May, but Scotland will be optimistic for the impending visit of England in the 6 Nations. Leinster join Munster in the second round as a result of the win, but like their rivals, they will be far from happy with the way they are playing currently.

I see Leinster winning at home to Montpellier next week while Bath just beat Glasgow at the Rec. So:

Leinster 24, Glasgow 12

Pool 4
Aironi were the ulucky ones in this year's Heineken Cup. 2 former winners and one of the favourites in their Pool, so no surprise to see them bottom. Seeing Leicester unceremoniously dumped by Ulster at Ravenhill for the second time was a surprise though. After a first half which was tough, but nothing insurmountable, Twelvetrees hit the post with a kick he should have made, and Leicester went missing. Big names and big forwards were engulfed by wave after wave of Ulster attack, and a 41-7 drubbing followed. Clermont ran in 12 tries in Italy to set up a decider at Marcel Michelin against Ulster next weekend. Winner goes through, loser, if Ulster, would need bonus point(s) and results to go their way to go through as runners'up.

Leicester reserves will take their frustration out on Aironi next week, while Clermont will have far too much for Ulster at home and will take the win while Ulster don't pick up a bonus point.

Clermont 20, Ulster 19

Pool 5
Ospreys win on Friday night against Treviso kept them in the mix. Treviso's win against Biarritz meant that only one side was likely to qualify from this pool. Saracens hosted Biarritz in Watford rather than the initially proposed Cape Town. Saracens at Vicarage Road is a tough task, and Biarritz having struggled in their domestic championship and without half of their talismanic pair (Yachvili was present but Harinordoquy not) they looked a bit short. Sarries scored through a lovely darting finish by Spencer, but Biarritz fought back well and a Yachvili try gave them hope, only for Saracens to cling to a 4 point lead thanks to Owen Farrell's boot. Strettle showed well for Sarries, while Barritt's performance proved his lack of dimensions, and his limits as a potential England centre

Next week should see a Saracens win in Treviso, and a Biarritz win at home to Ospreys

Saracens 23, Biarritz 17

Pool 6
Toulouse and Harlequins both won their home games to set up a last weekend shoot-out between the two. Quins were dogged against an improved and solid Gloucester, while Toulouse strolled past Connacht with 4 tries to stretch their lead at the top to 2 points. 2 tricky away games next weekend for the hopeful pair, as Harlequins go to Connacht while Toulouse face the shed. Neither home side has anything other than pride to play for, so 2 away wins could be on the cards. Were that to happen, I could see both sides qualifying, but I have a sneaking feeling that Gloucester could upset the Toulouse apple-cart next weekend. Time will tell.

I can see Quins winning in Connacht, though a bonus point may be too much to ask for. Gloucester vs Toulouse depends on Gloucester's frame of mind and selection. If I had to put my house on it though, I'd plump for Toulouse, just.

Toulouse 22, Harlequins 20

So, I have the seedings as (with group points in brackets):

Leinster (24) vs Harlequins (20)

Saracens (23) vs Edinburgh (21)
Toulouse (22) vs Clermont (20)
Munster (21) vs Cardiff (21)

That would also see Northampton, Ulster and Biarritz drop into the Amlin Challenge.

Another incredible weekend of tension, drama and good quality rugby. The Heineken Cup continues to reinforce its position as the best club competition in World rugby. Roll on next Friday

EPS, RBS and ERC

For the uninitiated, that's Elite Playing Squad, the sponsor of the 6 Nations and the European Cup.

So England have their first squad of the new (or temporary, who knows?) era. Stuart Lancaster and his team have perused the options on offer in the Premiership (primarily at the top end, but that is to be expected). The vast majority of the squad was as expected, though there was still the odd surprise, some welcome, some slightly less so if the Twittter traffic yesterday was anything to go by. I managed, when you take into account the 4 injury replacements for the 6 Nations, to get 26 names right, which is a fair stab, and in some cases, you could have given me 4 guesses and I wouldn't have plumped for the name selected.

Forwards
Corbisiero, Marler, Cole, Stevens, Wilson, Hartley, Mears, Webber, Lawes (Parling), Palmer, Deacon (Attwood), Botha, Wood, Croft, Robshaw, Morgan, Dowson, Clark

Without going into too much detail, the surprises are Mears and WIlson in the front row, Palmer, Deacon and Botha in the 2nd row and Dowson and Clark in the back row. In a squad which is full of youth and positive vibes for the future, Mears seems a strange selection. He has struggled with injury recently, resulting in major hooker headaches for Sir Ian McGeechan at Bath, and with younger talent around, such as Paice, Gray and George, such a stop-gap selection surprises me enormously.

Wilson is a solid option, but I fear that the 5 props selected mean more moving left and right for Matt Stevens, which will ultimately be to the detriment of both him and the squad.

The second row is full of surprises for me. Deacon I thought would have, and maybe should have, been jettisoned with the other older members of the squad. He is also injured. George Robson of Quins must be very disappointed to miss out, and I can't help feeling that Deacon has had his day. Palmer is a more than welcome surprise. The only reason I didn't select him was his current residence in France, which I believed meant he was not selectable. His line-out work is exemplary, and for that alone I am glad to see him selected. Parling and Attwood replace Deacon and Lawes for the 6 Nations while they recuperate from their injuries. A big chance for these two to prove they are the long-term answer that Deacon so clearly isn't.

The back row isn't without surprises either, as Dowson and Clark are 2 names that were not really considered ahead of the squad announcement, either by the tv experts or the various bloggers online. Both are solid options, but I can't help feel that Thomas Waldrom is a little hard done by. Already shamefully overlooked for the World Cup, and with many going so far as to say that Graham Henry maybe missed a trick by letting him slip through the net.

Backs
Youngs, Simpson, K. Dickson, Flood, Farrell, Hodgson, Tuilagi, Turner-Hall, Barritt, Ashton, Sharples, Strettle, Foden, Brown, (Trinder), (Goode)

The backs have a strange look to them, with only three centres and only three wingers. That said, Farrell, who seems to be the one the press are fixated with, has been playing centre all season and Trinder is added for the 6 Nations. Flood's injury may well force England to play Farrell at 10, but with Hodgson in the squad, it would be a shame not to use him. The inexperience of the back line would be eased by an older head at 10 while Flood recovers (if indeed he is out). It doesn't proffer much in terms of attacking rugby though, as Saracens, effective though they are, are not exactly purveyors of the beautiful game, and a line of Hodgson, Farrell and Barritt (in Tuilagi's absence) would suggest a dose of realism over expansive game.

The wings offer different things, Ashton with his finishing prowess, Strettle with his all-round game and Sharples with his electric pace. Brown will give continued pressure to Foden, who has never had it easy in terms of his place, as Armitage pushed hard while he was around. Foden is the incumbent, but Brown has impressed and will be ready to step in at the slightest sign of weakness.

Dickson has forced his way into the reckoning in recent weeks with some sterling performances, but I think Youngs holds the aces at scrum half still. Simpson can be considered lucky, as he hasn't performed well in recent weeks, and Danny Care's indiscretions have possibly given him one last go.

Finally, Trinder and Goode step up as cover for Flood and Tuilagi. Strange one that; Trinder for Tuilagi I get, but why Flood should be replaced by Goode (the one similarity is their rhyming names) I don't know. Full back for fly half...?

So now, the pontificating can move on a level. For ten days or so, the game has been to pick 32 from a list of 200 or so. Now, we have to pick 15 (or 22) from 32. This should be a lot easier, given positional limitations, but there are those (Farrell being the obvious candidate) who can function effectively in more than one position. I'm sure this will provoke much more animated discussion as the lead up to the first weekend of the tournament continues.

A brief thought of that first weekend now: when the fixtures were established, little could people have known that the first round would involve three big grudge matches (so to speak) with very recent (2011) history. Scotland vs England sees a repeat of the match which sealed Scotland's World Cup fate back in late September. On home territory, and with a much more settled squad, they will be confident of going one better. Wales and Ireland go head to head on the same weekend. A repeat of a World Cup Quarter Final which, beforehand, most people had Ireland winning. Ireland though were clearly reading their own press and over-confidence saw them failing to reach their first World Cup semi final. 4 months later and they have a chance to right that wrong, to a certain extent.

Finally, France welcome Italy in what is traditionally a relatively innocuous game in Paris. France won't be troubled, but given the defeat in Rome last year, Italy will be brimming with confidence in Paris for the first time. That said, that Rome defeat being so fresh in many memories will ensure that complacency will not be an issue. Given that it will also be the first game in charge for new coach Philippe Saint-Andre, I think you can safely say the French will be ready.

A more detailed preview will follow later of course...

Finally to Europe and Round 5 this weekend of the two trophies. The English sides showed sides of improvement last time round and Leicester will need to continue that progress in Ulster if they are to progress. Clermont should romp home against Aironi to put themselves within a Home win against Ulster of the Quarter Finals. Much could be decided this weekend, but traditionally, Round 5 sets the experts going and the graphic designers of Sky Sports will be creating "What if?" slides from Monday onwards. Another weekend of non-stop action awaits though, and as ever, you can read all about it, and the various qualifying permutations, here on either Sunday night or Monday morning.

I will hopefully have some more news to divulge to you then too. (That's called a teaser) ;-)

England Squad Announcement

Wednesday sees Stuart Lancaster's first meaningful day in his role as Interim Coach, or as I prefer to call him, Coach. The announcement of the EPS (Elite Player Squad or any other name you wish to give it) is the announcement of the direction that the House of Lancaster will take.

Let me get one thing off my chest before we go any further. The use of the word Interim is pointless. He is the Coach. Everyone knows it, everyone understands it, so why bother using the word interim? He is on a short-term contract, but he is the coach.

With that out of my system, time to look at the fruits of his first few weeks labour. He has traveled the grounds of the Premiership extensively, usually alongside his sidekick Muttly, sorry Rowntree. Every possible candidate for the 32 EPS places has had the coach's attention for at least 80 minutes, and after a meeting with Rowntree and his other principle assistant Andy Farrell, Wednesday sees the 32 names announced for the first time.

We've heard the rumours of those who are being overlooked and those who aren't happy with it. Mark Cueto and Nick Easter seemingly falling into the latter category, Wilkinson (retirement - ha), Shaw, Palmer, Tindall and many others have been jettisoned, as the new management team look to leave its stamp on the year ahead.

As every other blogger has seemingly had their go at picking the 32, I thought I should probably do the same. There have been some strange selections in the lists I have seen and heard. Steve Borthwick in Will Greenwood's list for example, Tom Palmer, who is in France, also getting named. I believe mine will be closer to the mark, but then I would say that wouldn't I?

Front Row
There are some interesting choices in the front row. Loosehead sees a relatively young survivor of the World Cup in Alex Corbisiero, and it would be a major surprise were he not to be included. This leaves a straight fight for the second spot between, as I see it, the future, loose option that is Joe Marler, whose scrummaging is maybe slightly weaker but whose hard yards in the loose and ball carrying would give England a dynamic option, and the more experienced Nick Wood of Gloucester, who is without doubt one of the better scrummagers in the Premiership, but whose loose game is a fair way behind Marler. A touch pick for sure, and while Wood may be the better short term option, I think this squad will be a very foward looking one and therefore expect Marler to get the nod.

Tighthead is a little more straightforward in my eyes. Dan Cole is the quiet unassuming character who gets on with things. After a slight dip in form at the World Cup, he seems to be back to something approaching his best. Matt Stevens too, since he has been focussing on the tighthead side rather than trying to be Mr Flexible, has made steps to somewhere near his best. I wouldn't be surprised if the pair get selected. Their form is reasonable, and their experience in a relatively young squad would be invaluable. Only Paul Doran-Jones, on current form, may disturb this pair.

Hooker is both easy and difficult. Dylan Hartley is the experienced man, he is probably the best hooker in England at the moment (well, in England and qualified to play for England). He is a shoe-in for one of the places. The second is a little more open, and most Premiership hookers have been mentioned in respect of the second place: Webber of Wasps, were he able to throw, would be the perfect foil for Hartley. His throwing though is at times abysmal, and England cannot really afford that. Paice of London Irish, Gray of Quins and George of the Jungle, sorry Saracens, are also in line, but Lancaster has Webber with the Saxons last year, and I suspect that will be the weight that tilts it in Webber's favour.

Second Row
Injury, retirement and deciding to play abroad have robbed England of Lawes, Deacon, Shaw and Palmer, from the rather disappointing World Cup second row. It always surprised me that, for someone who exhibited such qualities as a player in that position, Martin Johnson never managed to get anything out of his chosen second row forwards. Lancaster has effectively a blank sheet, though Lawes would be a certainty were he not injured. I still suspect Lawes will get an EPS place, as he should be fit for summer's Australia tour and the winter arrival of the Southern Hemisphere sides. Who joins him though? Robson of Harlequins is in good form, Attwood of Bath too seems to be on the road back to his best, and slightly left-field for me given his injury record and his lack of game time in recent weeks, Parling of Leicester would also get the nod from me.

Back Row
I'm pretty certain that, given the euphoria surrounding his performances this season in both victory, and latterly in defeat, Chris Robshaw will be named in the list. He may well be up for the captaincy eventually too, but for now he, Tom Croft and Tom Wood will waltz into Lancaster's squad. Three places to fill then, including the key Number 8 position. Specialists need to be picked there for me, and they also need to be people who take the game to the opposition at pace. Easter's time has been and gone, despite his recent lean look and performances, and as such, I would opt for Waldrom of Leicester and Morgan of Scarlets. Morgan is another of those who I believe has had a whisper from Lancaster, which explains the timing of his announcement that he would be choosing England ahead of Wales. The final back row position is a tricky one too, but I would go for Seymour of Sale, who is a proper number 7, though if slightly unfit given the clonking he took at Leicester last weekend, then Saull of Saracens would be a hair's breadth behind him on my list

Half Backs
Scrum half is a problem area for me, so I'm picking three to keep options open. Youngs and Simpson will be in there, and given recent performances Dickson of Northampton should also get his first shout. Watching him behind a dominant pack is a joy. His pass is unfussy, accurate and quick, his defence is stout and his kicking game, while never going to reach the heights, is more than good enough.

Fly half sees another tricky decision given the injury to Toby Flood, who is still hopeful of returning for the Scotland clash. I would pick him anyway, along with Owen Farrell. The third name (needed given Flood's injury and Farrell's likely use in the centre) is anther tricky one. I like Burns, but I think he is too green, I really like Lamb, but he is a little inconsistent and I used to love Hodgson, but the key words there are 'used to'. I've seen enough in Lamb to want to take the risk on him, but think Lancaster will opt for the slightly steadier Burns.

Centres
Manu Tuilagi is as near to the first name on the squad list as they come. If only they could find a way of inserting some common sense into him.... Alongside him is a tricky one, with youth being required. I've never understood why Dan Hipkiss was so consistently overlooked by previous coaches, but think he is likely to miss out again, and much as I like Smith of Leicester, I can't see him getting a go unfortunately. I see Trinder getting a call, Barritt, who has played Saxons and is a key member of Andy Farrell's Saracens backline and Banahan, who has the ability to play centre or wing, but who I would like to see being given a run at centre. Turner-Hall will be unlucky and miss out.

Wingers
With Banahan in the centre and able to slip to the wing, I am going for three form players and a slight wildcard. Ashton, of course, will walk in to the list. I think he will be joined by the hot property of the moment, Sharples, and the forgotten man of English rugby Strettle. The final name on the list is someone who, whenever they have stepped up a level, have made an instant impression: Wade, young and inexperienced though he is, is the nearest England will come to another Jason Robinson, and needs to be involved sooner rather than later.

Full Backs
Easy. Foden and Brown. Brown's form allied with Armitage's consistent run-ins with the authorities and his rumoured future departure to French shores should see the two form guys of the Premiership selected.

So there you have it, a list of 30. A mix between what I would do and what I expect Lancaster et al to do.

Forwards (16)
Corbisiero, Marler, Hartley, Webber, Cole, Stevens, Lawes, Attwood, Robson, Parling, Croft, Wood, Robshaw, Seymour, Waldrom, Morgan

Backs (16)
Youngs, Simpson, Dickson, Flood, Farrell, Burns, Tuilagi, Trinder, Barritt, Banahan, Ashton, Strettle, Sharples, Wade, Foden, Brown

Here is a back-up 15, any of which are feasible selections:
Front row: Wood, Gray, Doran-Jones
Second Row: Garvey, Gaskell
Back Row: Saull, Narraway, Gibson
Half Backs: Hodgson, Hodgson
Centres: Turner-Hall, Smith
Wings: Monye, Armitage
Full Back: Goode

A fascinating time of year. No doubt some of those names mentioned will lead you to laugh or call me crazy, but rugby is all about opinion. You've seen mine, why not tell me yours?

@theeggchaser on Twitter or Comment here. Thanks for reading, see you soon

Captain, My Captain

It seems an ever more important role on the rugby pitch. That of Captain. In the past, and as recently as the 1980s, the Captain had two functions: firstly to rouse the troops with a blood and guts speech before the game and at strategic intervals during it (that in the days when even international rugby saw the half-time break spent on the pitch) and secondly to let the referee know the intention at some decision points during the game (scrum or line again? "Posts sir!")

Now though, the role is ever more important and time consuming. The list of roles, not exclusive, but still pretty long is: on-field decisions, motivational, leading from the front, controlling discipline, Captain's run in training, press conference after press conference, promotional work for Sky, BBC, etc.

One of the odd decisions made by Marc Lievremont in his time in charge of France was to make Thierry Dusautoir captain. I recall, at the time, that most of my French friends were flabbergasted at such a promotion for a shy(ish) guy with no real background as a leader, yet Lievremont seems to have made a good appointment that Philippe Saint Andre will benefit from, and France enter the 6 Nations with an experienced captain in charge.

Wales stumbled upon their talisman when Sam Warburton took the captaincy by default before the World Cup. Recent Welsh captains have left me indifferent if I'm honest, but Warburton reminds me in many ways of a young Richie McCaw, and if Warren Gatland is able to fill in the numerous gaps around him, then more success could well come as a result.

Italy have the Captain they need in Sergio Parisse. A man, and this can never be said for any Italian previously, who would grace any International side. A true leader, never takes a backward step and always shows the example for others to follow. The biggest praise I can give him is that I wish he were English.

Ireland have been graced with two of best captains of the last decade in Brian O'Driscoll and Paul O'Connell. O'Driscoll could always be relied upon in attack and defence, and in terms of a motivator, there can rarely have been better in the last decade (Martin Johnson apart). O'Connell gets his chance this year due to BOD's injury, and the biggest compliment you can pay to him is that Ireland won't notice a difference.

Scotland have suffered for a while, with no real stars of any stature to stand up and be counted. Many have tried, and many have fallen by the wayside. The whole world is standing up and watching Richie Gray at the moment. Moving South to England to play with the Sale Sharks is a step he needed to take to ensure the quality of players around him week in and week out that he needs to be able to take the next step to being a great second row, and why not Captain. Were I Andy Robertson, I would be looking at him as a potential, if not definite, Captain for England 2015. 2012 may be slightly too early, but is a risk I would take.

Finally England, and you may have guessed that this is the real point of the blog. England are in a captaincy crisis at the moment. Three former captains are no more (either permanently or temporarily) with Wilkinson and Moody having gone into the retirement wilderness and Easter seemingly being overlooked). Of the current squad, or even potential squad, only 3 are currently captains of their club sides (Dylan Hartley, Luke Narraway and Chris Robshaw). 2 of those are highly inexperienced on the International stage and 1 has, in some eyes, a disciplinary problem of his own in terms of alleged off-field antics, yellow cards and a high penalty count against him. England are struggling to find a captain.

As I've said, it is my belief that a Captain should be, where at all possible, a great motivator, someone who leads by example and someone experienced at the level he plays at. It is rare indeed that someone steps up a level and can instantly captain at that level. Some people can do it of course, as they are just "that sort of person" but it is the hardest thing in the world to become a captain and have to lead people with considerably more experience than you. The "been there, done that, got the t-shirt" brigade are tough to lead if you don't possess the same t-shirt.

So what do England do? Risk a green captain? Go for experience in the hope that it irons out and disciplinary wrinkles? Go for an test match experienced player with no previous leadership experience? Three options, none of them ideal. My advice to Messrs Lancaster, Rowntree and Farrell (sound like legal advisors or estate agents don't they?) would be to forget the 2012 6 Nations and look to 2015. Who do you see leading us into that tournament as Captain? They may not be in the next squad, if not do't worry. Use a stop gap for the 2012 tournament and move on from there, but if there is someone who is a first choice now and who, in your eyes, is likely to remain a first choice for 2015, then give them the captaincy now and let them learn the job.

Chris Robshaw looks a good bet to be in England's back row in a month's time. He has captaincy experience. Will he be first choice in 2015? Dylan Hartley has captaincy experience, is first choice hooker and could well still be in 2015. Make him captain for 2012 and see if his disciplinary problems ease as they did when he took the role at Northampton? If it doesn't, there is still time to blood Robshaw or A.N. Other afterwards....

One final thing relates to the Premiership club sides. The RFU should not tell them what to do, far from it, but it would seem to me to be a good idea to politely suggest that an England qualified player should gain captaincy experience wherever possible. Toby Flood at Leicester, for example, would become a viable England captain if he had any leadership experience, as would Tom Croft or even Ben Youngs.

This last point may be slightly controversial, but it is a shame that, with the resources we have, we don't have 1 outstanding candidate to replace Lewis Moody at the helm and to assist Stuart Lancaster in the righting of the good ship RFU.

In honour of this, I have created a new Poll in the top right hand corner (or will have done if you read this and it isn't there yet). Who do you think should captain England in the 2012 Six Nations Championship. Please, please, please, please, please vote and let's get an idea of who you think it should be? Maybe Stuart Lancaster will read this and you can throw some light in his direction....